Tonight through Thursday:
Gusty winds will dominate much of the Central Coast and Southern California this week due to a tightening pressure difference between a strong high-pressure area over the Pacific and a cold, low-pressure trough over the western U.S.
Winds have put energy into the water and a high surf advisory remains in effect into Wednesday.
Today, we’re already feeling advisory-level winds across parts of the region, especially near the Interstate 5 Corridor and southern Santa Barbara County.
These winds will pick up further tonight as a cold air mass settles over the Great Basin and strengthens the surface pressure gradient, creating conditions that drive strong northerly winds.
Wednesday and Thursday:
By early Wednesday morning, a Santa Ana wind event will kick into gear across the region, particularly impacting Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, where high wind warnings and critical fire weather conditions will be in effect. This setup is intensified by the cold air mass pushing against the inland mountain slopes. In areas like the Santa Monica and Santa Lucia Mountains, damaging wind gusts over 50 mph are likely, with some locations potentially seeing gusts near 60-70 mph. Winds are expected to be strongest along typical Santa Ana corridors in eastern Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties. High wind warnings are also in place for the Channel Islands and the Malibu Coast, where gusty northeast winds could cause impacts, especially along the coast and foothills.
With very low humidity across the region and strong winds, fire weather conditions are especially concerning. High-resolution models are showing an unusually rapid increase in wind speed, which could pose a significant fire risk, particularly in windy areas like the San Gabriel Mountains and other elevated regions. Areas less exposed to winds, such as some valleys and sheltered coastal locations, will experience calmer conditions but with colder temperatures overnight. Radiative cooling under clear skies may push some inland valleys, including the southern Salinas Valley to near-freezing temperatures, possibly warranting a freeze watch for places like Paso Robles, and Cuyama. Similar to yesterday we'll wait until late to examine the potential for the advisory, it has not been posted as of this writing Tuesday evening.
Friday:
Winds will gradually weaken as high pressure builds over the region, bringing a warming trend that should push temperatures closer to normal for the season, especially in the interior valleys. Coastal and valley regions will also see a slight warm-up, though the strongest warming will be in areas further inland. Expect mostly clear skies to persist, providing a sunny and calm end to the week.
Weekend into Early Next Week:
A new series of troughs may approach the region by Veterans Day or early next week. While it remains uncertain whether rain will make it to the Central Coast, there’s a 40-50% chance that another round of gusty northerly winds will affect the region, particularly along parts of southern Santa Barbara County. Temperatures are expected to cool slightly as the trough moves through, with gusty conditions likely returning to the usual wind-prone areas. I've put in a chance of rain Monday.
Overall, expect clear skies, seasonal temperatures, and heightened fire weather concerns through midweek, with possible relief from strong winds by Friday. However, stay alert for updates as another wind event may be on the horizon early next week.
