The weekend looks interesting as a fast-moving cold front knife through the region later Saturday into early Sunday.
Rainfall with this system looks very minor with most areas seeing only light if any accumulation. The larger issue with the system is that it will crank up the winds across the Central Coast.
Saturday looks to see plenty of sunshine because the front does not arrive on the Central Coast until after sunset. The front races through the area before Sunday morning. But as the front moves through the area the difference in pressure will create a strong northwest wind.
For most of the Central Coast, the northwest winds will be 20 to 30 gusting to 45.
This has prompted a wind advisory for the Central Coast from 7:00 PM Saturday until 7:00 PM Sunday. For southern Santa Barbara County and the mountains, the winds will be higher. Higher elevations will see the highest winds which could gust between 60 and 70 mph and an isolated gust to 80 mph can't be ruled out. Sustained winds will also be 20 to 30 mph. For that reason, a high wind warning is in place from 7:00 PM Saturday until 7:00 PM on Sunday.
The temperatures for Saturday look to feature daytime highs in the 50s in the interior 50s and 60s at beaches with low 60s in the coastal valleys and low to mid-60s for the Southcoast.
After the front moves through Sunday’s temperatures will be colder with mid to upper 50s for most of the area.
Other than the wind the other concern would be waves. Our high surf advisory continues until Monday at 9:00 AM for 12-to-15-foot breakers.
There will be high tides throughout the weekend between 4:00 and 6:00 in the morning and these tides could locally exceed 5 feet. Thus far a coastal flood advisory has not been issued. Still, notations about some minor flooding and beach erosion have been made in the high surf advisory from the National Weather Service office in Oxnard.
The extended forecast looks generally cool with daytime highs in the upper 50s and low 60s for most of the area into mid-next week.
Another frontal system moves through Thursday but like the system Saturday into Sunday it looks moisture-starved.
Beyond that, there's very little agreement about the direction of the extended forecasts. Models keep flip-flopping between advertising an active mid-month to saying that the same time will be very quiet.
Given no strong consensus, the best forecast is usually to lean into climatology rather than assume huge storms develop. I’d expect this portion of the forecast (after the mid-point of next week) to change.
