Short-Term Forecast
A notable warming trend is set to impact the region through Wednesday, driven by high pressure building aloft and weakening onshore flow. This warming will be most significant inland, while coastal areas will experience moderated temperatures due to persistent night-through-morning low clouds, fog, and strong onshore winds.
Cloudy conditions characterize Monday's weather, but a significant reduction in both low and upper-level clouds is expected by Tuesday. Winds remain a concern, especially in the southwestern part of Santa Barbara County, with northwest winds ranging from 20 to 35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. Other areas, including the foothills, mountains, and Central Coast, will experience gusty but sub-advisory level winds.
Temperatures across many areas will rise several degrees higher than yesterday, with afternoon highs slightly above normal for most parts of San Luis Obispo (SLO) and Santa Barbara (SBA) Counties. Coastal valleys will see temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to the upper 80s, while beaches remain in the 70s. Interior valleys can expect highs near 100 degrees from Tuesday through Thursday. Coastal valleys will warm for a few days before cooling off, but interior areas will maintain higher temperatures for an extra day.
The warming trend is due to a flat upper-level ridge amplifying over the next few days, setting up a northeast flow that will likely clear out low-level clouds. Winds are expected to shift back to the northwest later in the afternoons. Weather models indicate potential redevelopment of low-level clouds on the South Coast by Wednesday morning, and similar clouds may develop off the Central Coast but are not expected to move inland until later in the afternoon. Thursday could see more persistent low clouds at the beaches as coastal temperatures cool.
Heat Advisory
A heat advisory has been issued for the Carrizo Plain, Shandon, and Creston areas, with an excessive heat watch in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. During this period, dangerously hot conditions are anticipated, with temperatures ranging from 98 to 104 degrees. The extreme heat poses a significant risk of heat-related illnesses. Residents are advised to take precautions such as drinking plenty of fluids, staying in air-conditioned rooms, avoiding direct sun exposure, and checking on relatives and neighbors. Staying updated with the latest forecasts and warnings is crucial.
Long-Term Forecast
Weather models show good agreement for the extended forecast period. The western edge of an upper-level high over Arizona and New Mexico will linger over Southern California on Friday, then weaken slightly on Saturday before an upper-level trough moves in on Sunday and Monday. Marine layer clouds are expected to affect coastal and adjacent valley areas each night and morning from Friday through Sunday. By the weekend, the marine inversion is likely to deepen, allowing cooler air and potentially clouds to reach further inland.
