It almost seems like a copy of last week’s weather: a mostly quiet week punctuated by a larger weekend system. While there are similarities there are also differences from last week. Notably, on Thursday we could see a few showers but whatever falls looks very light.
The weekend system also appears significantly different: it is a slow-mover with a much greater chance to put down significant rainfall.
But let’s rewind a bit. We still have several days before the larger storm moves in. We have one active advisory and that is for winds in the SW portion of Santa Barbara County until 3am. 20-40mph winds with higher gusts are expected in the Gaviota Pass area.
Wednesday will be another nice day with a few areas of low clouds early otherwise temps look to return to the 60s to about 70 for the region.
Thursday a cold front moves through early for a few showers but also for some breezy onshore conditions. Temps dip into the low 60s for some but the further south you go the less this front has an impact.
Friday we’ll be in the cooler air behind the weak cold front and highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s for most. Also, the larger storm system doesn’t look to arrive until later in the PM so at least the beginning of the day should be dry but rain is likely later.
Once the rain begins on Friday it could continue into Sunday.
The storm system for the weekend is a slow-moving upper-level low and trough along with a surface cold front.
Wind gusts 25-40 with gusts past 50-60 are possible this Friday into Saturday along with periods of moderate to heavy rain.
Rain rates of .25-.50”/hour are in the forecast and some peak times could see rates of .75”/hour. Thunderstorms are about a 10-20% chance.
1-3 inches of rain is possible with 3-5” in the mountains and foothills.
Snow levels are pretty high for the Central Coast but at the highest elevations it could be feet of snow. It is a more significant concern for the Grapevine.
While rainfall looks moderate to heavy at times Friday PM-Saturday. Sunday looks more scattered but not out of the woods yet for rain chances.
Once the system departs we’ll warm back close to 70 by Tuesday.
The current mid-range models don’t show another impending system after this weekend's system departs.
