Fall weather is known for extremes. We’ve seen 100+ this fall and already frozen in much of the area. This upcoming forecast is a fascinating one. The weekend looks cool in the mornings inland with temps near freezing (most should miss freezing lows narrowly but it can’t be ruled out). The afternoon highs everywhere look mild with 70s and 80s in the interior and some coastal valleys with beaches in the 60s and 70s.
A transitional ridge of high pressure moves over the area this weekend which will drive night and morning offshore winds, locally gusty with isolated areas even seeing wind gust potential to 30mph, but most areas will only see sustained offshore winds to 20mph in the morning.
This is more likely Saturday than Sunday but both mornings should feature offshore winds. This will keep skies clear and the air dry. This is why the lows will be cool inland yet the afternoon highs look warm.
Later Sunday onshore winds become dominant and the marine clouds creep back toward the coast. This will cool temps Monday and Tuesday but this is still before the storm system arrives later Wednesday and lingers into Friday.
The multi-day storm is a large stacked low in a trough of low pressure with SW feeder winds connected to the storm. This looks like a low-end atmospheric river event. An AR1 event is expected which is the lowest on a scale to 5. This still shouldn’t be discounted as multi-day rain events are significant.
Right now models are in some alignment in the .5-2.5” range for the Central Coast. We are too many days out for specific advisories but you should stay tuned with this potential some are definitely possible if not probable.
