The current warm and dry weather pattern will persist through the end of the week, thanks to a strong high-pressure system over the region. For residents of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties, this means continued sunny skies and warm inland temperatures, especially away from the coast, where highs will reach into the 80s. Marine layer off the Central Coast continues to be limited.
As we look toward the weekend and early next week, significant changes are expected. A strong upper-level weather disturbance is forecast to move into the area late Sunday, bringing much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance for light rain or drizzle between Sunday night and Tuesday morning.
Again, Friday morning features ‘some’ offshore flow early but not as strong nor will it last as long as the last few days. It’ll still be around long enough to drive another mild day. Saturday will see similar highs.
Right now marine clouds are at a minimum but some reorganization is expected over the weekend as onshore flow resumes. We’ll see some early clouds on Saturday and Sunday. When early clouds clear afternoon partly cloudy skies are likely as SW flow is dragging in some mid-level clouds.
Saturday the onshore flow weakens a little so temps could be a few degrees warmer than Friday.
A significant weather system will move into the region starting late Sunday, marking a shift from the current warm pattern.
This disturbance will bring strong winds, especially in the mountains and passes of Santa Barbara County and along the Central Coast. Winds could reach advisory levels, with gusts potentially exceeding 40 to 50 mph in some areas.
Along with the wind, temperatures will drop sharply. By Monday and Tuesday, inland areas that have been in the 80s could see highs only in the 60s or low 70s. Coastal areas will be even cooler. There is also a chance for light precipitation, with drizzle or very light rain possible late Sunday into Tuesday, especially in the foothills and along the northern slopes of the region’s hills.
Wednesday we could see another warming trend as offshore winds develop. This could lead to warmer conditions, particularly along the coast, with the possibility of offshore wind events driving up temperatures. However, the extent of this warming depends on how strong the offshore winds become.
Long-range models show a series of cold fronts dashing through the region through the first week of November, but even if you add all those opportunities together, we don’t expect much total rainfall.
The larger impact will be more wind and cooler-than-average temperatures. Some decent snow potential exists for the Sierra, however.
