The Central Coast has had a busy 2024 and that trend looks to continue into next week with several rain events on the way.
Initially, there are some showers expected later this evening but should be done before the morning commute. Most locations will get light rainfall to .10” but a few locations in SLO County could see .10-.20”, especially along the north coast of SLO County.
There is a second rain event from Saturday PM into Sunday AM, this will be a bit more significant than the first rain, depositing up to .50” for some coastal areas with lower amounts inland and not much across Santa Barbara County.
It is the third opportunity that looks the wettest. Sunday night or early Monday morning a much stronger low-pressure system looks to move into the Central Coast with higher rainfall rates (.50-1” per hour at times possible).
This system is slower and could linger into early Wednesday. Initial estimates are the system could drop 1-5” in 48 hours for the Central Coast and Santa Barbara County Southcoast with even more in the hills.
This is an atmospheric river system. It should be said there is some track uncertainty with this third system. Where the surface low tracks are critical, too far west and the most rain gets deposited over the ocean. That said, it is a significant enough system to issue guidance.
SLO County is monitoring Lake Lopez and Whale Rock reservoirs for spillage, though no major concerns about it at this point.
Waves are a short-term and mid-term concern. A surf advisory goes into place Thursday morning at 3a for 7-11ft waves, but 15-20 foot waves are possible Sunday and again on Tuesday.
The Sunday storm also looks windy with gusts to 40mph. That’s strong but not as strong as the storm earlier this month.
Thunderstorm potential looks to be about 10% Sunday night into Monday.
With recent saturation, there are flooding concerns, and some kind of areal flood watch is possible for the Sunday-Wednesday event.
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is for more wet and cool weather.
