Good morning Central Coast, happy Friday!
As we head into the weekend sunny skies (and high fire weather) continues but be sure to enjoy it, a big change is on the way. Let's dive right in!
This morning is beautiful and clear, although cold. Interior valleys are in the low 30s,the coasts are not too much warmer but still chilly, grab that extra layer.
Thankfully temps will warm up quickly today with highs reaching into the 70s in many communities. Beaches will be a touch cooler but will also see perfect clear skies through the day.
Alongside the clear skies and warm temps humidity is low and winds are a bit breezy. That combination, while comfortable is the perfect recipe for fire danger. Take extreme caution if doing anything that could produce sparks or ignite or abundant ground fuels. That includes driving over grasses on the side of the road.
Sunshine and warm conditions (with fire weather concern) will stick around through the weekend! Highs will surge a bit and highs over the weekend may reach to 80!
Head outside and enjoy it because the pattern is going to change significantly as we push into next week as a large system is expected to bring heavy rain across the state. Our best rain chances are Thursday and Friday. Take the time to prepare this weekend while the sun shines!
The long range models are beginning to come into agreement on a large scale system pushing into the region next week. A strong trough of low pressure will be all the energy needed for an atmospheric river to set up. There are a lot of questions about this portion of the forecast models that have essentially predicted a huge range of potential from nearly 0 range to as much as 6+ inches of rain depending on timing and position of the storm in the State.
As far as my forecast, I am in agreement with some of the mid range models that put us in the middle-lower end of that range. I expect that these forecasts WILL change the system nears but mre than an inch of rain is possible between Tuesday and Saturday next week with the lions share of that falling on Thursday and Friday.
Right now we are expecting an Atmospheric River level 1 (on a scale of 5). An atmospheric river is a combination of winds and moisture, in other words as transport of the kind of fuel you need for prolific rains. Right now this appears to be a forecast to monitor closely. As the system arrival is mid to late next week I expect the details to change but since the potential is high the wise action is to simply stay informed and prepare your home not just for this storm but for this winter as we move into the rainier portion of our year.
Have a wonderful weekend Central Coast!
