Good morning Central Coast!
A storm is looming offshore and will bring rain across the region from Wednesday through Saturday. This is a very dynamic forecast with a lot of moving parts so lets dive right in!
At this point there is a weak atmospheric river (AR) set up to our west bringing rain across the PacNW leaving us clear and mild. No concerns of cloud cover of fog for this morning's commute.
Temps today will be mild, near normal for this time of the year with clear skies and calm winds. I call this good preparation weather if you haven't prepared your property for winter rains just yet.
Take a moment today to clean out gutters and check drainage shoots in your property. With many dry months behind us debris has likely built up. Take time to prep, not just for this storm but as we head into the rainy season preparation is key.
Winds will be a noticeable concern to kick off this system especially within the interior valleys and peaks of Santa Barbara County. Gusts are expected to surge to 55 mph, enough for a wind advisory to be issued from Tuesday night through early Thursday morning.
It will not only be the interior valleys facing winds, as the storm system pushes onshore widespread breezy conditions are expected through the day Wednesday.
Diving into the storm system...
The large system spinning off the coast is providing the PacNW with significant rain today but we will not see that section of the storm here. We are more concerned with the two trailing low pressure systems spinning just behind the main cold front. These lows will slowly traverse our region beginning in the early morning Wednesday and last into the weekend.
The long lived rain chances are the reason that significant rain totals are even in the forecast. At least to begin the rain chances it will be dreary and drizzly. It is important to note that it won’t rain every second over the remainder of the week, it is on-and-off rain. With the spinning nature of the system timing these on and off moments are difficult to time with precision. Best to expect that on and off nature at any time between the first rains Wednesday and the last early Saturday.
The vast majority will be light to moderate rain but as the secondary low pressure passes over the Central Coast Friday into Saturday morning some heavy rain is possible with a chance for a passing thunderstorm.
Accumulation wise, some locations will receive more and some less (very much based on topography, peaks will see the most) but most will be between 0.5" to 1.5". I know that is a big range but we have many days of scattered showers that will add up.
Once the storm clears to our east Wednesday sunny skies will return. The weekend looks dry outside of the early Saturday rainfall and the Thanksgiving week looks to be problem-free in California based on the latest modeling. If there are changes we’ll let you know.
Have a wonderful day Central Coast! Be sure to download the KSBY Microclimate weather app for the latest details and alerts from the storm over the coming days.
