Good morning Central Coast!
We made it to Friday! Our forecast is very active so get outside and enjoy it while it lasts and get prepared for rain, a lot of it!
Some early morning cloud cover made for a beautiful sunrise, take a look at that ^
As we move into the day highs will start mild with little dense fog to cause concern, temps this afternoon will be warm with highs in the 60s, even reaching 70 in San Luis Obispo!
Get outside and enjoy it there is a lot of rain on the way, that is what people want to know about most so let's dive right in!
We are in a very active pattern that has several storms headed our way, not all of them will be particularly heavy and the weekend will be far from a washout. That being said all combined inches of rain is expected and flooding is expected early next week as a stronger system moves in. We have learned this already this winter but it is best to stay prepared and have multiple ways to receive hazardous weather alerts. We will bring alerts to you on air, plus for even more localized alerts download the KSBY Microclimate Weather App.
Friday will stay dry, most of Saturday morning as well. Our next rain storm is expected from Saturday PM into Sunday AM, this will be a bit more significant than Thursday morning's showers but not too problematic, depositing up to .50” for some coastal areas with lower amounts inland and not much across Santa Barbara County. This will be fast-moving and clear out by Sunday morning. A few scattered showers are expected but nothing too problematic.
Our greater concern is Sunday into next week when another system pushes in, significant rain is headed our way from this one. It will begin with a pretty classic atmospheric river setup, a band of heavy rain will reach us Sunday night into Monday morning. Higher rainfall rates 0.50"-1” per hour are possible at times.
That initial impulse is where the bulk of the rain is expected. Highest flooding risk falls in that band but will continue into late next week as more rain moves through and releases from our already full reservoirs are expected.
After the first front moves through scattered showers will continue to push in, riding in on the southeasterly winds that will help to drive the storm. This will be much less organized but is still expected to bring heavy rain through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday morning before it pushes east.
We will see a couple of days of sunshine late next week before the chance for even more rain in the extended forecast.
All said and done the next 7 days have a lot of rain potential. Initial estimates are the system could drop 1-5” in a 72-hour period for the Central Coast and Santa Barbara County Southcoast with even more in the hills.
Alongside all this rain winds and waves are expected to be a major concern.
15-20 foot waves are possible on Sunday and again on Tuesday with some coastal flooding due to high tides is expected. No advisories are currently in effect but I would be surprised if that stays that way.
As far as winds go, they look much calmer than the storm two week ago but still gusts to 40mph are expected with stronger gusts at peaks.
With recent saturation, there are flooding concerns, and a flood advisory has already been issued for this event Sunday PM-Wednesday morning.
Here is all of that distilled into one forecast!
Have a wonderful day and weekend Central Coast!
