——— 1:32 a.m. Update from Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde ———
Some strong activity developed near Oxnard and a tornado warning was issued from 1:30 to 2am
While this is not in the immediate area, it does illustrate the power of this storm system.
——— 10:43 p.m. Update from Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde ———
Here is a more in-depth look at the newly issued FLASH FLOOD WARNING in parts of Santa Barbara County and Ventura County. This includes a forecast overview for the entire area.
——— 10:10 p.m. Update from Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde ———
FLASH FLOOD WARNING for west Ventura, eastern Santa Barbara, Montecito, Carpinteria, La Conchita, Summerland, Old Man Mountain, Lake Casitas, Meiners Oaks, Highway 33 between Wheeler Springs and Solimar Beach. 3-7 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.75 to 1 inch per hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
——— 7:50 p.m. Update from Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde———
There are continued Special Marine Warnings for waterspout potential along the Southcoast:
——— 7:45 p.m. Update from Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde———
Special Marine Warning thru 8pm: showers capable of producing waterspouts located over the eastern and central Santa Barbara County and moving towards the shoreline at 30 knots between La Conchita and Gaviota.
——— 4:32 p.m. Update from Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde———
The Flood advisory for the Central Coast has expended to include the entire viewing area until 9:45pm.
Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
Flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas is taking place and water over roadways is also possible. Some roads have already been closed.
This afternoon doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated moderate to heavy rain across the area, with rainfall rates of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour, and local rates to 0.75 inches per hour. Between 1.5 and 4 inches of rain have fallen in the area, with local totals over 6 inches in the Santa Ynez Range.
Poor drainage areas have already experienced minor flooding in the advisory area. Widespread ponding of water and flooding of low lying areas and intersections will continue through at least early tonight.
There may be some flooding of creeks and streams as well. Rocks and boulders may fall onto roadways, especially below steep terrain.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area through 945 PM PST, with local additional totals of 3 to 4 inches possible. This additional rain will continue to produce widespread flooding.
Some locations that will experience flooding include:
The Lizzie and Alisal burn scars, Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Lompoc, Paso Robles, Morro Bay, Pismo Beach, Santa Ynez, Montecito, Atascadero, Arroyo Grande, Nipomo, Carpinteria, Cambria, Solvang, Templeton, Orcutt, Los Alamos, and Highway 101 through Gaviota State Park.
——— 2:32 p.m. Update from Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde———
As expected the Flood Advisory for SLO and Santa Barbara County has expanded eastward. This new advisory is until 4 p.m.
Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas is likely with water over roadways.
Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area.
Some locations that will experience flooding include: Santa Barbara, Santa Ynez, Solvang, Refugio State Beach, El Capitan State Beach, Isla Vista, Goleta, Highway 166 between Twitchell Dam and the Cuyama Valley, Carrizo Plain, Black Mountain, Figueroa Mountain, Lake Cachuma, Shandon, Highway 154 over San Marcos Pass, Santa Barbara Airport and Hope Ranch.
——— 2:08 p.m. Update from Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde———
All the current advisories remain in place and once the line of rainfall edges eastward I'd expect the flood advisory to expand into central and eastern portions of Santa Barbara County.
Here are a few updated graphics I have produced since my handoff with Vivian:
This first one is from the NWS which emphasized the seriousness of the rain scenario.
This is just an update to the 3km accumulated rain potential into Friday afternoon:
Updated future clouds and radar showing the system progress across SB County soon:
There is more potential activity after Christmas but models have changed from the Central Coast seeing moderate impact to it only getting glancing blows as systems strike north of here. The current model run likes the primary impact to be north but it is a part of the forecast to monitor if you have travel plans. Looks active but the details are of lower confidence at the moment:
——— 12:20 p.m. Update from Meteorologist Vivian Rennie———
The National Weather Service has issued a flood advisory for all of Western San Luis Obispo County and Western Santa Barbara County due to heavy rain continuing to fall across the region. Minor flooding has been reported in poor drainage areas as well as water flowing over roadways. These advisories will remain in place until 4 p.m.
I do expect more advisories of this type to be issued for the rest of the region as the day goes on. Here is what the radar is looking like as of 12:30 p.m.
———11:30 a.m. Update from Meteorologist Vivian Rennie ———
Very heavy rain bands are setting up and pushing into the coastal valley and Beach communities, Here is a forecast discussion and update from around 11:15 a.m.
———10:15 a.m. Update from Meteorologist Vivian Rennie———
The line of storms is here and is bringing heavy rain to our beaches and especially to North West San Luis Obispo County. From midnight to 10 a.m. Already nearly an inch of rain has fallen in San Simeon and Cambria. Plus nearly three inches of rain has fallen at Rocky Butte.
Two Special Marine Warnings have been issued for our oceans. The seas are very hazardous plus combined with heavy rain, hail and the potential for waterspouts there is active concern. This concern will translate to heavy rain and expected flooding for our beaches this morning.
———Original Article ———
Good morning Central Coast!
Today is going to be a dangerous day across the Central Coast with heavy rain expected to bring flooding and wind concerns for the day. Let's dive right in!
Check out your interactive radar here!
While the Central Coast picked up some good rainfall Monday into Tuesday will pale in comparison to the system Wednesday and Thursday.
Here is a look at the rain totals for all communities to this point!
A cut off, strong low pressure system is pushing onshore this morning and bringing heavy rain across the region for much of the day Wednesday and Thursday. It has already brought some significant flooding in portions of the Bay Area as well as in Montery County. As it moves south though it will bring concerns into the Central Coast.
Heavy rain, thunderstorm risk and high winds are expected from this morning through Friday morning. In the about 48 hours this storm is impacting us we will likely see some urban and small stream flooding, damage to fragile trees and hazardous roads.
Timing out the storm, by mid morning the first line of storms will begin to push onshore. This will slowly push east, by early afternoon most of the region (except the Santa Barabara area) will be dealing with heavy rain.
As the afternoon progresses the line of storms will push east.
As far as rain totals go most communities can expect 1.5" to 3", along the Santa Barabra Southcoast 4-6" of rain is expected. Highest totals will be centered in the interiors of Santa Barabra county at the tops of transverse ridges within the Santa Ynez mountains as their topography will help squeeze more moisture out of the system.
That much rain, paired with the several inches we have already seen this week increase flood risk significantly for the region but particularly along the southcoast.
This risk has prompted the Weather Prediction Centrer To issue a Moderate Risk (at least 40% risk) of excessive rainfall enough to cause flooding for much of Santa Barbara county. For the rest of the Central Coast a Slight Risk (at least 15% risk) has been issued.
The SW winds will be gusty and locally strong. That flow also will continue to usher in warm-moist air for the system.
The rain will come in the form of higher rainfall rates, but also duration of the system lingering in the area. An added concern is the thunderstorm risk which exists both Wednesday and Thursday.
The Wednesday system looks to arrive in the morning and keep churning away all Wednesday and Thursday as the low could spin near the Central Coast before dropping into SoCal. This trajectory could keep the South Coast in the rain into Friday. A flood watch has been issued for all the concerns listed above. Do not enter flooded areas, or moving water.
After that, a series of storms still continue into the West into the New Year but most look to be centered in NorCal.
Some frontal boundary crossings for the Central Coast should bring some occasional lighter rains but nothing as large as the Wednesday-Thursday storm is expected in the local forecast.
Take caution today and be sure to stay weather aware!
