Good morning Central Coast!
To kick off the morning it is a little on the chilly side with another round of frost and freeze alerts for all of our coastal communities. This is similar to our last few mornings, so the takeway is grab that extra layer on the way out the door.
A cooling trend will begin today and turn significantly cooler over the weekend as a cold storm system moves over the region. Rain showers and mountain snow are expected between Saturday afternoon and Monday. Brief heavy downpours with small hail are possible with any thunderstorms, mainly on Sunday. Dry but cool weather is expected the rest of next week. But before any of that happens, there is still a little offshore wind left and with clear skies and dry air.
Offshore gradients have peaked and are trending weaker. Expecting this trend to continue through tonight and turn onshore later on Friday.
While gradients will be weakening, lingering offshore winds are still expected through Friday morning, especially over the higher terrain. Most coastal areas will transition to an onshore sea breeze Friday afternoon, resulting in a significant cooling trend from around 80 Thursday to high 60s and low 70s today.
Attention then turns quickly to the upper low that will be moving into the area this weekend. The most notable change in the models today was a slightly slower arrival into central and southern California. Models now are keeping the low north over the Bay Area a bit longer but will bring the first chances for rain Saturday night with the bulk of the system Sunday into Monday morning. Other than that, there's still a lot uncertainty with how this storm will play out in our area.
Models continue to cluster tightly around the quarter to half-inch range for a storm total across Santa Barbara County and slightly less to the north in SLO County. But there are still is some uncertainty, a few models like a wetter system especially for interior valleys.
For the SoCal burn scars, especially the most recent ones this month, chances are still very low, around 5-10%, that rates will exceed the half-inch per-hour rate. Peak rain rates are generally expected to be a quarter inch per hour, and for much of the time a tenth of an inch per hour or less.
Snow levels with the morning runs weren't quite as low as before, now keeping the snow level slightly above 4000 feet through Sunday evening. In this scenario, it's unlikely the Grapevine will see anything more than a dusting of snow at pass level. If the low drops farther south Sunday night into Monday there could be up to an inch on the Grapevine during that time.
Much cooler this weekend with highs 55-60 for most coast and valley areas. Next week looks generally cool as well with highs returning to near normal for this time of the year.
Here is a look at your weekly drought monitor. Spoiler alert... it isn't good.
66.78% of the state is under drought stages (up 6% just from last week) and the extreme drought stage has increased to 11.90% of the state, the majority of that in SoCal where the strong winds are complicating already devastating firefighting efforts. Good news though, a rainstorm will be here this weekend and bring us some relief.
Have a great day and weekend Central Coast!
