Good morning Central Coast!
Early this morning a few showers moved through. This was mainly drizzle with accumulations less than a tent of an inch for most but northern SLO county picked up closer to a half inch of rain.
That rain will clear out quickly and a warm and sunny day is on the way for Thursday and even more so for Friday! Here is a look at the temps!
Now that this morning's light rain has passed it is a good time to turn to our next few rain chances. Before I dive in one thing to remember, there are three distinct systems headed our way, while the first one won't be too impact don't let that fool you our second system is where the bulk of the concern lies.
Now that that is out of the way here are the details.
Our next rain event will reach us Saturday, PM into Sunday AM, this will be a bit more significant than this morning's rain, depositing up to .50” for some coastal areas with lower amounts inland and not much across Santa Barbara County. Not a huge system but it will likely all come in a singular band of rain that may be heavy at times.
Winds and waves will also pick up while this storm passes. I expect the high surf advisory that is currently in place to be extended through early next week.
Sunday will bring in a stronger front followed by scattered showers for several days. I count these as our second and third systems.
Plus this combination will bring the lion's share of our rain. Sunday night or early Monday morning a much stronger low-pressure system looks to move into the Central Coast with higher rainfall rates (.50-1” per hour at times possible).
This system is slower and could linger into early Wednesday. Initial estimates are the system could drop 2-5” in 48 hours for the Central Coast and Santa Barbara County Southcoast with even more in the hills.
This is an atmospheric river system. It should be said there is some track uncertainty with this third system. Where the surface low tracks are critical, too far west and the most rain gets deposited over the ocean. That said, it is a significant enough system to issue guidance.
SLO County is monitoring Lake Lopez and Whale Rock reservoirs for spillage, though no major concerns about it at this point.
Waves are a short-term and mid-term concern. A surf advisory goes into place Thursday morning at 3a for 7-11ft waves, but 15-20 foot waves are possible Sunday and again on Tuesday.
The Sunday storm also looks windy with gusts to 40mph. That’s strong but not as strong as the storm earlier this month.
With recent saturation, there are flooding concerns, and some kind of areal flood watch is possible for the Sunday-Wednesday event.
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is for more wet and cool weather.
Have a great day Central Coast!
