Good morning Central Coast!
Let's dive right in, a powerful storm flooding northern California will make its way south through the Central Coast later Friday PM into Saturday. More rain Sunday through Tuesday is in the forecast. This will be more significant than any other event we've had thus far this season, but it will not produce local rain amounts like it is producing in NorCal. Local rainfall Friday through Tuesday .50-3" is possible and is location-dependent (more later in this story).
Ahead of the storm reaching us you can expect fair skies and dry weather through Thursday as a weak ridge of high pressure dominates the region. Offshore flow will remain mild, limiting strong canyon winds but keeping humidity low in the interior areas, which raises some fire weather concerns.
Skies will range from mostly clear to partly cloudy due to mid- and high-level clouds streaming in from a strong storm system far to the north. Temperatures will climb slightly each day:
Highs today will be slightly warmer, with valley and inland areas exceeding seasonal averages, while coastal areas remain cooler due to the influence of sea breezes.
The weather begins transitioning toward a cooler and wetter pattern Friday. The ridge will move east, allowing a powerful storm system currently impacting the Pacific Northwest to shift southward. Onshore flow will develop later in the day, increasing cloud cover north of Point Conception.
This weekend will feature the Central Coast’s first major storm of the season, bringing cooler temperatures, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain. The storm will be driven by a strong jet stream and a moisture plume though the system lacks consistent southerly flow that typically enhances rainfall totals.
The storm will bring two main rounds of rain:
1. First Wave: Arriving Friday evening into Saturday, with lighter rainfall.
2. Second Wave: Expected late Sunday into Monday, potentially stronger with better upslope flow, leading to higher rainfall amounts in mountain and foothill areas.
The highest rainfall totals will be in the peaks of northern SLO County. Some spots could see 2 to 3 inches of rain.
Coastal and valley areas: 0.75 to 1.5 inches. Enhanced rainfall is possible along the south-facing slopes of the Santa Ynez Mountains.
The storm will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures. Highs will generally remain in the upper 50s to mid-60s through the weekend and into early next week.
This is a warm system, so snow levels will remain above 7,000 feet through the weekend. As colder air filters in Monday and beyond, snow levels may drop to 5,000–6,000 feet, but precipitation will likely taper by then, minimizing snow impacts.
There’s a chance of a third, colder storm arriving late next Tuesday or Wednesday, potentially bringing lower snow levels and additional rain. Stay tuned for updates as this dynamic system evolves.
Have a great day Central Coast!
