In California we call almost anything that creates rain or wind a “storm”, but you certainly couldn’t blame some for asking, “well, where is it?”
The forecast is actually quite on track. We never expected the start of the multi-day system to be the strongest. We have seen a little bit of rain and a lot more wind thus far but the strongest part of the system is still on the way later Friday into Saturday.
There will be much more rain coverage and higher rainfall rates, and thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
One thing that should tip you about the system’s potential is the consistent south winds driving some generally warm temps for this time of year. There are also some taller cumulus clouds and this is before the colder unstable air aloft comes in.
Wind advisories are back, right now there is an advisory for the Santa Barbara county high country for S winds of 20-30 with gust potential to 40 and 50mph. Breezy conditions are expected elsewhere, just not at advisory strength.
Our forecast has been for .50-1.5” of rain, and Vivian and I are sticking with it but note that we expect a few places to be above and under that range. Places likely to be under include the deep interior. Places likely over include the SLO County north coast and possibly the Santa Barbara Southcoast.
While we’ll get some wind the surf looks to stay under 10ft, so no advisory has been issued.
There are currently no other advisories other than the wind advisories.
There is a positively tilted trough and a huge area of low pressure off the coast. This low is reluctant to move east until Friday and Saturday. So what rain we received thus far has been from pieces of energy that shoot off the parent low.
The system moves out later Saturday then temps warm back into the 70s, even mid 70s. The holiday week next week looks benign in terms of weather.
