How this article works:
You'll find the most recent updates at the top with more supporting material further down. If there is a conflict of information the newest information at the top should be considered the more accurate.
Update from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde 9:00pm
New modeling is hinting at perhaps a little slowing of the heaviest rain into Sunday later morning or early afternoon, rather than right away in the morning. This could lead to a little more instability along the boundary leading to perhaps a small increase in thunderstorm odds. I don't think there are many other changes to consider at the moment.
1-4" for SLO county thru late Monday with higher amounts in the hills and south-facing slopes.
2-6" for Santa Barbara County with 5-10" in the mountains and foothills.
I think there will be a small lull before midnight tonight. Activity will energize Sunday morning, it looks to rain Sunday into the evening with rain rates .50-1.0"/hour at times. Thunderstorms are possible. Powerful winds Sunday morning into later afternoon. (check below for all related advisories). Activity will become more scattered later Sunday but another surge of moderate to heavier rain will take place Monday afternoon into evening.
Update from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde 7:18pm
Lighter rain continues. Most places with about .10" as of now but again this is just the leading edge of the system. Sunday morning will be the most intense time with the combination of rain and high winds.
Live rainfall totals can be found HERE.
I am attaching a longer video to this story but I'll keep the afternoon forecast discussion video up for now as well.
Update from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde 4:15pm
This is going to be a significant update here. The National Weather Service just completed a briefing this afternoon and some of their forecast changes are important to highlight. They have increased both their wind and wave forecasts. The Weather Prediction Center upgraded the flooding risk for the Southcoast to 40-70%. The thunderstorm risk has also increased.
Here are some rivers we'll have to monitor during the event:
Update from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde 3:20pm
The Weather Prediction Center has now identified the Santa Barbara County Southcoast as having a high risk of flooding from the coming system. I talk about that and more in the video clip at the top of this story.
Update from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde 10:22am
Good morning. Below you'll find a Facebook Live forecast discussion for the storm. There are not many changes in the forecast. I am still expecting showers to develop later this afternoon with more intense wind and rain Sunday. The heaviest rain happens Sunday but on and off showers look possible much of next week. Rainfall potential will still be measured in inches for most.
Update from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde 10:44pm
As expected, the high wind watch has been converted to a high wind warning for later Saturday into Sunday. This happens when a high-probability event gets closer in terms of time, when we got inside the 24-hour window the watch went to a warning. No actual change in the expectation happened. S SE winds 25-35 sustained with gusts 45-65mph are likely during that time. Some gusts up to 80 are possible in the Santa Lucia hills/mtns. These are damaging winds that can fall trees and cause power interruptions. The winds will also coincide with some of the heaviest rain expected Sunday.
The new modeling in tonight has not changed the forecast. We are still expecting Saturday to begin rather quiet but by later afternoon or evening rain begins and the system rapidly intensifies into and thru Sunday.
The Central Coast just got past atmospheric system #1. That system dropped .50-3” of rain for most places but parts of the Santa Barbara County Mountains experienced 5+” of rain.
This next storm system is something we’ve seen coming for a while, but now all the advisories, watches and warnings are going up in advance of the arrival to keep people informed and safe.
The concern moving forward is the potential of an even stronger atmospheric river storm. The last atmospheric river storm was a 1 on a scale to 5. The upcoming storm is a 3 on that scale. This means it will be capable of transporting even more water vapor to the area.
While Saturday gets off to a good start by late in the day showers look to return. Activity increases into Sunday and Sunday looks to be a particularly wet and windy day. This activity lingers into Monday when it is expected to wane a little into Tuesday. Other disturbances will likely keep rain possibilities in the forecast all week.
While the Central Coast could see 2-5” additional rainfall some areas exceeding that is possible.
The key concern though will the Santa Barbara County where 2-7” rainfall will be joined by higher potential for the mountains and foothills. Some areas could see up to 12” of rain. If that seems crazy, consider those locations already got 6” from this last system and the Santa Barbara area got 3+”. More is expected than the last system.
Here are the current active advisories:
There is a flood watch in place for this event for expected heavy rainfall and the likelihood of flooding, in fact, much of California is in that advisory.
There is a high-wind watch. These watches usually become warnings. Winds will pick up Saturday evening and stay strong into late Sunday. S-SE winds 20-30 will likely see gusts of 40-60+mph. This kind of wind typically blows around unsecured objects. Trees or branches can fall and power outages often happen as well.
A high surf advisory has been extended into Monday. Currently, waves are still at advisory levels from the NW from the last system. Waves wane a little Saturday before the swell becomes southerly and builds to nearly 20 feet for the Central Coast and 8-12ft for the Southcoast.
The Weather Prediction Center has identified the area as having a moderate flooding risk from the weekend system. That means there is a greater than 40% chance of flooding taking place.
