As expected Tuesday saw variable clouds and temps definitely cooled by onshore flow and on-and-off sunshine. There is a trough of low pressure moving thru the region. The first chance of rain is actually later tonight as some convective activity is possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has identified parts of the Southern Sierra and Tehachapi Mountains as potential areas for thunderstorms. This potential extends thru the Southern San Joaquin Valley out to the Temblor Range, the mountains to the east of SLO County. Modeling shows us on the very eastern edge of the potential activity into later this evening. Most Central Coast communities have little to no chance of activity.
Other than that, we’ll continue to see plenty of cloud cover later tonight into early Wednesday. The trough is keeping the marine depth quite high so the low clouds are not just limited to the coast, the interior valleys also will experience them.
This again will limit some sunshine on Wednesday and with continued onshore flow the temps will be very similar to Tuesday’s, perhaps just a few degrees higher.
After Wednesday more significant warming is likely as a ridge of high pressure pumps up. This will warm the interior most significantly but coastal areas will also see warmer temperatures.
70s and 80s return for the coastal valleys with interior temps warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Saturday. Temps may back off a little Sunday into next week but still, be more than 10 degrees (or more) warmer than they were today.
The 8-14 day is largely unchanged with models indicating the ridge being so amplified on week 2 of this forecast to allow return flow of monsoonal type moisture and energy into California. Some rain and scattered thunderstorms are possible in the deeper extended forecast. Most of the activity will be in higher elevations, but some drift off those locations into coastal valleys is possible and will have to be monitored when these dates get closer.
