With the potentially serious nature of the forecast, anyone with questions about planning and preparation should consult their local county Office of Emergency Services.
For San Luis Obispo County (click the link below)
READYSLO.org (click for redirect)
For Santa Barbara County (click the link below)
READYSBC.org (click for redirect)
***New tonight from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde 10:26pm:
As expected, wind advisories have been issued for the Central Coast and a high wind warning for the Santa Barbara County higher elevations:
***New tonight from KSBY Chief Meteorologist Dave Hovde:
The new 0zGFS computer model is coming in very wet for the Saturday pm-Monday storm (system #2). This is a significant upgrade in rainfall potential. Should this happen on top of a 1-2" preceding rain event, flooding would be likely. Other models complete in the hours ahead but right now there is growing confidence in a serious/wet system to end the weekend and begin next week.
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Tuesday experienced the cool down we were expecting as high pressure begins to break down in advance of a storm system on the way for later Wednesday through Thursday.
The weather gets much more interesting on Wednesday.
A strong onshore push early should deliver some low clouds and potentially some sprinkles early in the day but it is really Wednesday late afternoon into evening and overnight when rainfall becomes heavy thunderstorms are possible and the winds crank up significantly.
This storm Wednesday into Thursday is an atmospheric river which means it is fueled by a long stretch of subtropical moisture that originates in the central Pacific.
An atmospheric river means that the storm system moving into the area will be well supplied with moisture and instability. This will mean rainfall rates between 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch per hour at times especially if thunderstorms develop. The moisture stream itself will provide a significant amount of potential accumulation. Our forecast remains for 1/2 of an inch of rain in the deep interior 2 up to three inches of rain at the coast. There will be some wind-prone areas with S faces that see potentially more than 4 inches of rain.
Snow will levels start quite high, around 7000 feet but descend to about 5500 feet Thursday. At the highest levels, we will see some accumulating snowfall in combination with the expected high winds.
For the Central Coast, there isn't a lot of real estate at those levels.
Winds will be quite strong out of the South-southwest Wednesday night into Thursday with some gusts 30 to 40 mph and perhaps even stronger at higher elevations in the Santa Barbara County mountains.
High surf is expected. 7-10ft Wednesday but building to 14-18ft Thursday for the west-facing Central Coast. The SB Southcoast will see some 8-12ft break. Advisories last until Saturday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has identified coastal California as having a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Thunderstorms do have the potential for brief heavy downpours lightning and hail. The Weather Prediction Center has identified the area in a risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday into Thursday as well.
And this isn't the only game in town, another storm is likely Sunday into Monday.
This second system could deliver another 1-4” of rain. This means cumulative rainfall between now and this time next week could be 2-7+”.
That’s a lot of rain potential and historically when we get that much rain there will be some local issues handling all that water.
