The slow start to this storm system doesn’t come as a big surprise because the bulk of the energy with this system is locked up near the parent low which is still far off the Central Coast.
That low doesn’t pass over the area until later Friday into Saturday, this is when the best opportunities are for meaningful rainfall.
Thursday Vivian and I expect on-and-off showers to be possible but it is likely more “off” than “on”. But a few showers can’t be ruled out so you’ll see “isolated to scattered showers” in our forecasts.
Winds are actually the biggest local concern at the moment with an advisory for the Central Coast thru 10pm and the SB County Mountains until 1am Thursday.
SE Winds for the coast are 15-30mph with higher gusts, and for the mountains 20-30 with gusts to 45mph. While the advisories drop, the breezy to windy conditions continue thru Friday. I could see the advisory being posted again Friday.
Later Friday into Saturday, the low which has lingered off the coast finally moves thru the area and more rain coverage and higher rainfall rates are likely. Thunderstorms can’t be ruled out either.
Our forecast has been for .50-1.5” of rain, and Vivian and I are sticking with it but note that we expect a few places to be above and under that range. Places likely to be under include the deep interior.
Places likely over include the SLO County north coast and possibly the Santa Barbara Southcoast.
While we’ll get some wind the surf looks to stay under 10ft, so no advisory has been issued.
There are currently no other advisories other than the wind advisories.
There is a positively tilted trough and a huge area of low pressure off the coast. This low is reluctant to move east until Friday and Saturday. So what rain we get will likely be pieces of energy that shoot off the parent low. It is possible the best dynamics of the system stay off the coast and when they do come east they may weaken producing only moderate rainfall. There is also dud potential, some models show rainfall less than .50”
The system moves out later Saturday then temps warm back into the 70s, even mid 70s. The holiday week next week looks benign in terms of weather.
