Tonight: A weak low-pressure system is moving down from the north, bringing a cold front that will impact the Central Coast through tonight. This front produced light rain mainly to the Central Coast and higher mountain slopes, though accumulations will be minimal. Most areas should receive less than a tenth of an inch of rain.
The bigger issues are likely to be wind and waves. Both are garnering advisories for Tuesday into Wednesday.
As the system moves through, the primary effect will be increased wind, particularly across the mountains and the southern coast of Santa Barbara County. Expect gusty west to northwest winds this evening, reaching advisory levels in some areas like the Montecito Hills. Wind gusts could reach 60 mph in these more exposed locations, creating challenging conditions through tonight. If you live in areas prone to strong gusts, especially near passes and canyons, be prepared for possible isolated power outages or minor debris on roads.
Tuesday and Wednesday: By Tuesday, the winds will begin to shift from northwest to north and eventually to a northeast offshore direction. This change is due to a surface high-pressure building over the Great Basin, creating a pressure gradient that enhances northeasterly winds across the region. Temperatures will begin to warm up slightly by Wednesday as these drier offshore winds bring warmer air down from the mountains, helping to clear skies and allowing for more sun to break through. Expect cooler than normal temperatures on Tuesday, gradually warming by a few degrees into Wednesday.
Thursday: Another system approaches the region, possibly bringing more light showers to the Central Coast late in the day. Confidence is moderate on this rain potential, with a 20-40% chance that light showers could develop by Thursday night, mainly north of Point Conception.
Long Term Forecast (Friday - Early Next Week):
Friday through Saturday: Looking ahead to the weekend, unsettled weather remains likely, although there is some uncertainty in the exact impacts. A trough of low pressure will linger over the region, keeping temperatures seasonally cool and bringing another round of light showers, most likely Friday into Saturday. However, there's some uncertainty on the storm track; if the trough takes a more inland route, it could bring drier conditions but stronger winds, which could elevate fire weather concerns inland.
Sunday and Early Next Week: By early next week, high pressure is expected to build over the Great Basin, setting the stage for potentially stronger Santa Ana winds.
