Tonight through Friday: Dry and mild conditions will persist along the Central Coast through Friday, but tonight, areas of southern Santa Barbara County, including the Interstate 5 corridor, will see gusty northerly winds.
These winds result from a decaying cold front moving through the region, which brings a shift in the atmospheric pressure patterns. Expect wind speeds reaching up to 40 mph in gust-prone areas like the I-5 corridor and parts of southwest Santa Barbara County, though impacts should be minimal and no wind advisories have been issued.
Temperatures are slightly cooler than average, around 5-10 degrees below normal. This is due to the northwesterly air flow bringing cooler air across the Central Coast. By Friday morning, some patchy frost could develop in the inland valleys, where colder air settles overnight. Frost advisories may be needed in these areas, especially where temperatures dip to near freezing.
Saturday and Sunday: A weak storm system will move into California Saturday, bringing some cooler temperatures and light showers for the northern parts of the region. The storm is tracking further east, reducing the chance of measurable rain along the coast. Light rain (less than a tenth of an inch) is possible north of Point Conception and along higher elevations near the Transverse Ranges, especially in areas from the Grapevine westward, but most of the Central Coast will remain dry or experience only brief sprinkles.
Behind the front, expect gusty northerly winds, especially in the mountains and southern Santa Barbara County, where gusts could reach 40-50 mph Saturday night into Sunday morning. These winds may also affect some valley areas with gusts around 25-30 mph, though impacts will be modest. Sunday will see a return to sunny skies, and temperatures will warm back up after Saturday’s cool-down.
Early Next Week (Monday-Tuesday): As we head into Monday and Tuesday, dry weather will continue under a stable northwesterly flow. Winds could still be gusty, particularly in the mountains, with potential for advisory-level winds if pressure gradients intensify. Southwest Santa Barbara County may see occasional Sundowner winds as well, which could lead to breezy evenings. Temperatures will warm gradually, with some valley areas reaching the low 80s by Tuesday.
Extended Forecast: I'm still watching Nov 7th-11th range. Models keep flip-flopping. This would be nothing to note except the flip-flop relates to the potential for a larger inch-plus storm. Low confidence at this point in any model run but should the storm show up more consistently we'll have to start talking about it with more weight.
