While the Central Coast prepares for a multi-day rain event there are still some questions as to the intensity of the system. Forecasts range from around a half of an inch to 3+ inches cumulatively for the event. Our forecast has been for .50-1.5” of rain, and Vivian and I are sticking with it but note that we expect a few places to be above and under that range. Places likely to be under include the deep interior. Places likely over include the SLO County north coast and the Santa Barbara Southcoast.
The National Weather Service adjusted its forecast down a little and is very close to our expectations.
There is also a wind advisory for Wednesday, advisory level for the high country of Santa Barbara County but locally breezy to windy elsewhere.
While we’ll get some wind the surf looks to stay under 10ft, so no advisory has been issued.
There are currently no other advisories other than the wind advisory but if the higher end rainfall does take place some rain related advisories are possible.
The set-up remains the same. There is a positively tilted trough and a huge area of low pressure off the coast. This low is reluctant to move east until Friday and Saturday. So what rain we get will likely be pieces of energy that shoot off the parent low. It is possible the best dynamics of the system stay off the coast and when they do come east they may weaken producing only moderate rainfall. There is also dud potential, some models show rainfall less than .50”
This is a low end atmospheric river event. All that means is that the system has active moisture transport along with it. It is a 1 on a scale of 5 and only hitting that category on Thursday.
The system will produce on and off rainfall into Saturday before moving on. The holiday week next week looks benign in terms of weather.
