Wednesday turned out to be the beautiful day we were all expecting. I hope you enjoyed it because the forecast will become more active Thursday through Sunday.
The first event is a cold from passage in the late night and early morning hours. This will produce less than .25” of rain for those who get any.
The best chance of rain with this weak front will be in SLO county with rain chances falling apart in southern Santa Barbara County.
This will not ruin Thursday as all the rain opportunities are done in the morning. It’ll be cooler with highs in the low to mid-60s for most.
The next event is later Friday into Sunday as a larger system moves through. Not only is the system larger, it will also move slowly on arrival. This means the system will be around longer to produce more rain.
The first rains with this system start Friday evening. The heaviest rain will fall Friday night through Saturday with more scattered on-and-off showers possible Sunday. The best chance for rain Sunday will be in Santa Barbara County near the proximity of the low.
Rainfall totals generally .50-2.5", higher amounts are possible in the mountains and along the Central Coast and adjacent foothills where 3-5" of rain is possible.
This is a reduction in the forecast, however, it still looks like some decent potential. It is also possible that new modeling could return higher rain expectations. 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday with locally enhanced rainfall rates and amounts near any storms that form.
Waves will start building soon and a surf advisory is certainly possible. We could see one for Thursday and last through the weekend event.
Winds will also be a factor. Thursday looks breezy but Friday night thru Sunday will be windy and winds of 20-30mph with higher gusts are possible so I would expect some wind advisories when the system draws closer.
The system kicks out Monday and by Tuesday 70s are back in the forecast and the middle of next week could see some valleys pushing into the upper 70s.
