The region has experienced a series of Pacific storm systems this week, and while the first storm is now weakening, another is on its way and later next week could feature a multi-day system.
Rainfall from the initial system varied across the region. While some areas, particularly north of Morro Bay and the Santa Ynez Mountains, saw significant accumulations, most locations received lighter amounts. While the recent precipitation has reduced fire risk, it has not been enough to cause significant flooding. Gusty winds experienced yesterday have diminished.
A brief break in the rain is expected until tomorrow afternoon for most locations, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of light showers, primarily in northern SLO County before noon.
After that, like the last system, most places will see rain in the afternoon into Friday morning.
This system poses some uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts, as its track and speed are still being determined. Current projections suggest around a half inch of rain to 1" for most areas, with the possibility of higher totals along the coastal slopes. Local mountains of the north coast in SLO County could get another 2-3" while most south-facing hills could see 1-2".
Snow levels will remain elevated, above 7500 feet. It will also be another windy system likely to prompt more wind advisories:
The weekend will bring a shift towards drier conditions.
A weak ridge of high pressure will develop, leading to a warming trend on Saturday, with temperatures climbing into the 60s. But cold overnight lows are also a concern because the air will be dry:
Weak offshore winds will also develop. On Sunday, these winds will strengthen and combine with upper-level support, potentially leading to advisory-level northerly winds in wind-prone areas, especially in southern Santa Barbara County.
Early next week, dry weather is expected to continue. Monday will be partly cloudy with continued northerly winds in some areas, and temperatures will remain cool. Tuesday will also be dry with partly cloudy skies and continued northerly winds, potentially bringing canyon winds in the morning. Temperatures will remain below normal.
Looking further out, models indicate the possibility of multi-day storm system impacting the region around the 13th or 14th. Forecasts will be refined as the system approaches.
However, if the more recent aggressive models are right, this will be something to keep our eyes on.
