The Central Coast is seeing some showers today, which will continue into the evening, tapering off Wednesday morning. After that, the Central Coast will be generally dry weather through Thursday, but there is a chance of light showers at times. The best chance of this is in the hills in eastern SLO and SB Counties on Wednesday afternoon as the cold air aloft will likely get energized by some daytime heating, producing enough lift for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at higher elevations. Isolated showers elsewhere are possible but again not probable.
Gusty winds are expected, particularly today and tonight, and again on Thursday into early Friday. A dry period is anticipated from Friday through early next week, with significant warming likely over the weekend, bringing above-normal temperatures Saturday through Monday.
This morning, skies were mostly cloudy across the forecast area, except for partly cloudy conditions in coastal and valley areas south of Point Conception. Some showers moved into San Luis Obispo County and northern Santa Barbara County. A weakly cyclonic and somewhat moist west-to-northwest flow pattern aloft is in place.
A strong and cold upper low is moving into Oregon this morning and will drop southeastward through Nevada and eastern California later today and tonight. Its associated surface front will bring some mostly light precipitation to San Luis Obispo County, most of Santa Barbara County.
Precipitation totals through this evening should mostly be one quarter of an inch or less, with locally higher totals possible in northwestern San Luis Obispo County.
Snow levels will likely drop to between 4500 and 5000 feet, and there could be local snow accumulations of an inch or two through this evening.
The main weather story today and into the evening will be the winds.
Widespread strong west to locally northwest winds will affect much of the region from late this morning into tonight.
Winds are expected to be unusually strong for a west wind event, with gusts to 50 mph quite likely in coastal areas.
The low and mid-level flow will turn northerly late tonight and Wednesday morning. Winds should decrease in coastal areas, but advisory-level NW winds are likely to continue in portions of southern Santa Barbara County.
The upper low will move eastward across northern Arizona on Thursday. Skies should be partly cloudy and cool, and there will be areas of gusty west to northwest winds, possibly near advisory levels in some areas. Temperatures will again be quite cool across the area on Thursday, remaining in the 50s and 60s in most areas.
The large trough will linger over the western states Wednesday night and Thursday.
An upper-level disturbance will drop southward through the Pacific Northwest and Nevada on Thursday, evolving into a closed upper low over the lower deserts of southern California late Thursday afternoon. While this system won't have a lot of moisture, low pressure develops with decent dynamics, and increasing instability will make the most of any available moisture. There is a good chance of showers from eastern Santa Barbara County southeastward, especially in Los Angeles County on Thursday afternoon, ending across Santa Barbara County in the evening. Thunderstorms are possible at this time in these areas.
In the long term, from Friday through Monday, the upper low will move eastward on Friday, allowing high pressure to build. There will be areas of gusty NW to N winds in the morning, possibly reaching advisory levels in some areas, then winds will subside. After a chilly start, maximum temperatures will rebound on Friday, and be several degrees higher than those on Thursday in most areas. Highs should reach the lower to mid-70s in some of the warmer valley areas.
It will most likely be dry and warmer over the weekend, but the degree of warming will be determined by the exact upper pattern.
By Monday, an upper trough moving into the eastern Pacific will likely bring minor cooling, especially near the coast, as onshore flow increases. Temps should start moving up a few degrees on Tuesday.
