Quick note from Meteorologist Vivian Rennie:
Happy Friday everyone, as a way to keep all the information on this storm in one place I will continue to update this story through Friday Evening.
——— 6:30 PM Update from Meteorologist Vivian Rennie ———
In anticipation for Hurricane Hilary a Flood Watch has been issued for the interiors of Santa Barbara County. This will be in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday Night. Heavy rain is expected and could be very impactful.
I have very much shied away from showing rain totals so far as they are very likely to change but here is what I am looking at. We are right on the edge of this storm so only a few miles will separate inches of rain from trace amounts. The interiors of Santa Barbara will see the most significant rain, up to 2" from the storm. Coastal valleys and beaches will likely see very much less some areas only expecting to see a couple hundredths of an inch of rain.
——— 5 PM update from Meteorologist Vivian Rennie ———
Here is a look at the up to date information on Hurricane Hilary as it nears the Central Coast.
———10:45 AM update from Meteorologist Vivian Rennie———
Here are the bullet points of what you need to know!
- Overnight Hilary strengthened to a Category 4 Hurricane with current sustained winds of 145 mph. The first bands of rain fell earlier this morning in Cabo San Lucas.
- It will continue to intensify today as it travels over very warm waters but the track will take Hilary north into cooler waters and is expected to weaken significantly Saturday morning.
- Landfall is expected Sunday morning in northern Baja California and cross over into SoCal as a tropical storm. This will bring extreme rainfall to the palm desert and across the San Diego area.
- As the storm moves north it will weaken into a low pressure system and bring heavy rain to the LA Basin as well as the Central Coast.
- Rain will begin Sunday afternoon first along the Southcoast and will slowly bring more rain through Monday morning. As far as rain totals go, the Southcoast will see as much as 2" of rain while towards the Northcoast there will be significantly less. Possibly just a few tenths of an inch.
- The main concerns for us are heavy rain (mainly along the interiors of SB county and along the Southcoast), winds upwards of 45 mph and waves cresting above 10 ft.
- Stay weather aware through this system and please limit travel to SoCal during the storm.
———Original Story ———
Good morning, Central Coast and happy Friday! As we move into the weekend conditions are looking great but that is all about to change as Hurricane Hilary is headed our way.
I will keep this story updated through the day Friday with the latest on the storm.
First diving into our conditions this morning, there is some dense fog and cloud cover continuing to push through the region.
This isn't really anything out of the ordinary but some locations in the Lompoc area and along our southcoast has reported visibility as low as 1/4 of a mile. That can make driving tricky.
Temperature wise things are looking great. We're continuing to see a cool down especially in our interiors where the highs continue to drop from triple digits to upper 90s. That is WAY more comfortable than the highs up to 105 with added humidity that the interior valleys faced earlier this week.
For the next couple of days conditions are staying very moderate, temperatures at the beaches will be in the low to mid 60s, coastal valleys in the upper 70s and our inland areas in the low 90s. By Sunday morning though things are going to change quickly as Hurricane Hilary takes over the region. Before I dive into that though here is a look at your 7 day forecast!
Okay, enough about the calm weather, let's dive into what Hilary will bring us.
Overnight into Friday morning the storm strengthened even more and is now a Category 4 Hurricane with sustained wind speeds up to 145 mph. This was expected as the storm continues to track over the very warm water temperatures off of the coast of Mexico. The waters it is currently over have temps in the 80s, that is enough to fuel the storm in its continued path.
As the storm moves north though sea surface temps rapidly cool down to our infamous chilly pacific waters. Off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula sea surface temps are only in the upper 60s and 70s. That will cut the storm off from its fuel source and help the storm calm a bit before landfall.
The current storm track brings Hurricane Hillary north parallel to Baja California as it calms slightly. That being said as it nears landfall the storm will still be very strong and has the chance of making landfall as a tropical storm.
Where landfall actually occurs is tricky, especially this many days out but the most likely scenario is for landfall to take place Sunday night in northern Baja, think the Ensenada area. The worst of a storm like this is in the NW quadrant so the most impactful rain would likely fall in the Palm Desert, and inland Empire.
If the center of the storm makes landfall even 40 miles east, in Southern California the worst of the rain could be felt in San Diego and Orange county.
As the storm gets closer we will be able to refine where landfall will happen much more.
In anticipation of the storm the California Office of Emergency Services issued an advisory for Hurricane Hilary, and we are already starting to see more watches pop up. National Weather Service issued an Areal Flood Watch for Santa Barbara, which is in effect until Monday night.
For us along the Central Coast, slightly farther from the center of the storm we are going to still see large impacts. The concerns that I am watching closest are heavy rain, strong winds and high waves. Simply put stay prepared.
Here is a preliminary look at the timing.
Saturday afternoon the first few outer bands of rain will push north into SoCal, continuing to "ride the wave" of the monsoon winds we have been seeing recently.
By early Sunday morning more consistent rain will begin across SoCal, this will be accompanied by strong winds (expected to be above advisory level) and high waves.
The landfall is expected Sunday morning and will cross over into Southern California shortly thereafter.
By that poing heavy rain is expected to already be falling across the Central Coast. That will be alongside the strong winds and dangerous ocean conditions.
Rain will stick around through the night Sunday into early Monday morning when the remnant low presses north.
Sunday night through mid day Monday is when our greatest risk for heavy rain exists. As the storm pushes north we will clear out and dry out quickly.
Remember, to stay up to date with our weather conditions, you can download our KSBY Microclimate Weather App.
Have a wonderful Friday Central Coast!
