Short Term Forecast (Tonight - Monday):
Today through Sunday: Expect a mild and dry stretch of weather across the Central Coast this weekend, with temperatures reaching the 70s for most areas and 60s along the immediate coastline. Offshore pressure gradients will gradually weaken, with high pressure to the east and weak ridging in the upper atmosphere. This ridging is allowing warmer air aloft, which will help keep temperatures steady in a pleasant range.
With clear skies and calm conditions, nights in sheltered inland valleys, like the Antelope Valley, will remain chilly. A Freeze Warning is in place tonight due to sub-freezing temperatures, though warmer nighttime lows are expected starting Sunday night as the ridge strengthens slightly and brings just a touch more moisture to the air.
Starting Saturday night, low clouds and fog will begin to form along coastal areas and into some valleys. This marine layer will be light initially but should gradually deepen and become more noticeable, especially as onshore flow begins to increase Sunday night and into Monday.
Monday: A shift in the weather will arrive as a Pacific trough begins to slide southward from the Pacific Northwest. This system will bring increased onshore flow and could lead to some light rain, primarily for the Central Coast, Monday afternoon and evening. Moisture will be limited with this system, so at this point it looks like significant rain is unlikely. In fact, I think most places avoid rainfall but a sprinkle is possible.
Winds will also begin to increase, particularly near the coast and higher terrain, as the system moves through. Breezy to gusty onshore winds will continue Monday afternoon, strengthening into Monday night as cooler air and a more stable environment settle in behind the trough.
Long Term Forecast (Tuesday - Friday):
Tuesday: Mostly clear skies redevelop across the region. As the system exits, high pressure will build just north of California, establishing an offshore flow pattern that will support gusty winds over the mountains and foothills. Winds are expected to peak Monday night through Tuesday night, with a 40% chance of requiring wind advisories in wind-prone areas like the Santa Ynez Mountains .
Wednesday - Friday: Following a cooler start to the week, temperatures are expected to warm as high pressure aloft strengthens, bringing dry, stable air and likely pushing highs into the upper 70s to mid-80s along coastal slopes by Wednesday and Thursday. With offshore flow moderating, nights should remain cooler but less frigid than the start of the week.
Looking Ahead to Next Weekend: Forecast models indicate the potential for a significant upper-level trough to develop over the western United States late next week. If this feature materializes, it could bring cooler and possibly wet weather to the Central Coast. However, this forecast carries considerable uncertainty, so we'll continue to monitor as models evolve in the coming days.
