An upper low parked to the SW of the area will start moving through the region and will bring cooler temperatures and a deeper marine layer midweek. From Friday through the weekend, daytime highs will trend upward with locally gusty northerly winds.
Short Term Forecast
The marine layer was shallow and stubborn this morning, at about 1500 feet deep. Clouds hung on past 9am for many coastal valleys while interior areas were sunny, and temps got off to a fast start.
The cutoff low to the south of the region allowed a narrow ridge to boost high pressure temporarily Tuesday resulting in the inland heat.
A slight cooling trend will begin midweek, followed by a substantial drop in temperatures on Thursday for inland areas, caused by increased onshore flow as the low-pressure system moves through.
Wednesday’s highs look to return to the mid to upper 80s inland. Coastal valleys return to the 70s and beaches into the 60s.
Southwesterly winds will increase during the afternoons and evenings but are unlikely to reach advisory levels. Late in the week, strong upper-level north-to-northwesterly winds are expected, potentially reaching advisory levels in Santa Barbara county.
Long Term Forecast
After the upper-level low clears the region, a ridge will build. By Friday night, the northerly pressure gradient will shift to offshore, reducing the marine influence and contributing to a warming trend for Friday and Saturday.
Sunday and Monday, models show a broad trough of low pressure sweeping over the area, resulting in a downward temperature trend into early next week.
Winds and fire weather will be the most impactful elements in the long term for the Santa Barbara Southcoast. Strong northerly upper-level winds driven by the exiting low pressure will likely create advisory-level winds late in the week. From Friday afternoon through Monday, strong north to northwesterly winds will dominate. These winds will peak on Saturday. Humidity levels will drop, raising concerns for Sundowner Winds and fire weather conditions from Friday night through Monday.
This northerly flow will lead to better clearing.
