Short Term (Today - Sunday):
The main weather story continues to be the large-scale low-pressure system spinning off the Pacific Northwest. This system is steering a weak frontal band toward the Central Coast, marking the beginning of a wetter local pattern.
Rain Timing:
- Light rain is expected to begin along the Central Coast overnight.
- Rain will spread southward, arriving in Santa Barbara County late.
- Winds:
- Gusty south winds will pick up this evening, especially for coastal and interior sections of San Luis Obispo County. A Wind Advisory is in effect starting at 8 PM for some areas, with gusts reaching 30–40 mph.
Saturday:
Light, steady rain will continue into Saturday morning. This is not a particularly strong storm.
- Rainfall Totals (Through Saturday):
- San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties: 0.3–0.7 inches, with 1.0–1.5 inches possible in the Santa Lucia Range.
- San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties: 0.3–0.7 inches, with 1.0–1.5 inches possible in the Santa Lucia Range.
Sunday:
Another rain band will arrive over San Luis Obispo County by mid-morning.
Long Term (Monday - Thanksgiving):
Monday and Tuesday:
The second storm system will bring more widespread rain to the Central Coast and eventually all of Southern California. This system will have a slightly more robust moisture feed, driven by a subtropical plume of moisture.
- Rainfall Totals (Sunday Night - Tuesday):
- San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties: 1–2 inches, with up to 4 inches in the mountains and south-facing slopes.
- Rain Rates: Generally moderate, with peak rates approaching 0.33 inches per hour in favored upslope regions.
Wednesday and Thanksgiving (Thursday):
Uncertainty remains for the holiday forecast. Models were keeping things quiet during this period but recent runs are showing some potential right around mid-week. Best to prepare for the rain potential, but this part of the forecast will likely see a lot of refinement over the next few days. So, as always, stay tuned.
