A long-anticipated shift in the weather pattern from dry weather to much more active weather is still in our forecast. We still have a few days of mild conditions before the forecast takes this more active turn. Saturday could even be slightly warmer than Friday with some daytime highs in coastal valleys reaching into the middle 70s.
The forecast shift begins on late Sunday with the approach of a large storm system both at the surface and in the upper atmosphere. The current ridge of high pressure over California will likely provide some easterly winds before the storm system arrives. Initially, this could mute the beginning of the rainfall temporarily.
The timing according to most models today is for the rainfall to begin Monday (though a few drops could fall Sunday it would be more isolated than anything, and non-accumulating if it happened).
The storm system Monday looks to put rainfall not only on the Central Coast but elsewhere throughout the Golden State. After that, a series of impulses look to roll through California with on-and-off rain events through the rest of the month.
One day I think people should pay attention to at this point is Wednesday of next week. That would be system #2 if you were counting them. Most models like this to be significant and wet.
This first system on Monday could produce up to an inch of rain on the north coast of SLO County but less elsewhere, especially inland where it looks light.
I think it's the March of system after system that will really add up. Models indicate we could see anywhere between two to seven inches of rain by the end of the month.
At this point timing any system after the first system is a little premature because track and intensity could change this far out. I think the best course of action is just too anticipate an active weather pattern and check for the latest forecasts should you be making travel plans.
