Update 8:53pm 12-19-23 by meteorologist Dave Hovde:
No change to the forecast. The satellite imagery still looks strong and the model guidance has been consistent for a Wednesday-Thursday storm with the highest impact for the Southcoast but still strong rain potential in the 1-3+" range for the Central Coast. The Southcoast could see 4-7" and some areas could see 10" (in the mtns. and into Ventura County). Wind advisories will kick into place at 4a. (this joins the flood watch):
While the Central Coast picked up some good rainfall Monday into Tuesday, it could pale in comparison to the system Wednesday and Thursday. That system will linger into Friday for the South Coast.
This next system has 1-4” potential for the Central Coast with 2-7” of rain possible for the South Coast. Interior areas could see less, and mountains with S-SW facing slopes likely the most.
The SW winds will be gusty and locally strong. That flow also will continue to usher in warm-moist air for the system:
The rain will come in the form of higher rainfall rates, but also duration of the system lingering in the area. An added concern is the thunderstorm risk which exists both Wednesday and Thursday.
The Wednesday system looks to arrive in the morning and keep churning away all Wednesday and Thursday as the low could spin near the Central Coast before dropping into SoCal. This trajectory could keep the South Coast in the rain into Friday. A flood watch has been issued for all the concerns listed above. Do not enter flooded areas, or moving water.
After that, a series of storms still continue into the West into the New Year but most look to be centered in NorCal.
Some frontal boundary crossings for the Central Coast should bring some occasional lighter rains but nothing as large as the Wednesday-Thursday storm is expected in the local forecast.
