Critical weather update from meteorologist Dave Hovde 9:55pm:
As expected the Freeze Watch was replaced by a freeze warning for the interior of SLO County and the Cuyama Valley. This means overnight lows are expected to be below freezing long enough to potentially kill unprotected sensitive plants. Lows this cold can impact unprotected outdoor pipes as well.
Tonight through Thursday:
Strong offshore winds, known as Santa Anas, are expected to persist in Southern California, driven by a high-pressure system in the Great Basin interacting with a low-pressure trough off the Southern California coast.
This setup brings gusty northeasterly winds and dry conditions, which contribute to high fire danger through Thursday.
Winds have been intense today, with gusts reaching up to 85 mph in some mountain areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties and 45-65 mph in lower elevations. These strong winds are due to a particularly tight pressure gradient combined with colder air moving southward, which is pushing these winds down into valleys and over coastal areas.
The Central Coast is on the edge of this event and not experiencing high winds.
Winds are forecast to continue into the evening in SoCal, with a secondary push of strong offshore flow expected on Thursday morning. Although Thursday's winds will likely be a bit less intense, gusts could still reach over 60 mph in mountain regions and through favored canyons and passes. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, but while San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties won’t see winds quite as strong. In wind-sheltered areas such as the Southern Salinas River Valley and the Cuyama Valley due to the dry, cold air, potential frost or freeze conditions are likely and a freeze watch has been issued. If conditions are favorable later tonight this could be elevated into a Freeze Warning.
This means temps will be cold enough long enough to damage or kill plants and potentially damage unprotected outdoor pipes. Elsewhere lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s, cool to cold but not at advisory levels.
The dry air and offshore flow locally (light) will be enough to boost most high temps back into the 60s and 70s on Thursday.
Late Week (Friday and Saturday):
By Friday, the pressure pattern will begin to relax, leading to a noticeable decrease in winds and a warming trend. Highs are expected to reach the 70s under sunny skies. Winds will ease, making way for calmer, more typical fall weather for the Central Coast with mild daytime temperatures and chilly overnight lows in the inland valleys.
Weekend into Early Next Week:
A series of weak storm systems will pass near the region, starting Sunday, but they’re not expected to bring any rainfall locally. The primary impact will likely be a slight cooling effect by early next week as a weak trough dips through the state, moderating temperatures back down closer to seasonal averages.
Looking into mid-next week, a slightly stronger trough could bring another round of Santa Ana/Santa Lucia winds by Wednesday or Thursday. Although this event won’t likely reach the intensity of this week's strong winds, moderate offshore gusts could return, particularly through the usual wind-prone corridors.
