Warm and dry conditions will continue through Thursday as another offshore wind pattern develops. Gusty northeast winds will develop today and peak overnight and into Thursday morning. A significant cooling trend will begin Friday and continue through the weekend as a cold storm system moves over the region. Showers are expected off and on through Monday morning with mountain snow above 3000 to 4000 feet.
Offshore Winds Return
Offshore winds have returned to the region and are expected to really kick into gear later tonight into Thursday. Wind advisories and warnings are in effect for all the usual offshore areas. So far, locally winds have been below advisory levels. Gusty east winds are expected through the Santa Lucias in SLO County but mostly under 35 mph. In Southern California there is a rare fire warning, for new fires and a red flag warning and wind-related advisories in place.
Winds are expected to taper off through the afternoon Thursday and evening slowly.
Temperatures on the Rise
Temperatures today have climbed to the upper 60s to upper 70s. Expecting one more day of well above-normal temperatures and even a few degrees warmer potentially. This would be roughly 15-20 degrees above normal across the coast and valleys.
Cooling Trend Begins Friday
Gradients will quickly turn onshore Friday, resulting in a much cooler day for the coast and valleys, likely dropping back into the 60s to lower 70s.
Cold Upper Low Brings Showers and Mountain Snow
On Saturday, a cold upper low will be dropping south through California. As the low continues its track to the south, shower chances will be increasing across the area. Most ensemble solutions indicate showers holding off until later in the afternoon or even into Sunday morning, but cutoff lows are very difficult to predict the movement of and the timing could be off by several hours or more. Snow levels will be lowering and if showers start Saturday there could be snow down to 4000 feet by evening.
Temperatures Saturday will be much cooler with highs in the 50s to lower 60s for the coast and valleys.
Showers Continue Sunday into Monday
The upper low is expected to remain in the vicinity through at least Sunday night and possibly into Monday. Ensemble solutions have been pretty consistent showing the best chances of showers later Saturday into Sunday. While showers will mostly be on the lighter side, under a quarter inch per hour, rain totals are expected to taper off to a half inch or less. There is still a chance of a thunderstorm or two across the area with rain rates around a half inch per hour. If this happens over a burn scar it could initiate a debris flow.
Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday. A few weather computer models are showing some offshore winds next week but chances are considered low at this time.
