The big story really isn't the short-term forecast but it is what the local impacts will be from an epic storm ready to hit NorCal and the PacNW over the next few days. Local rain potential begins Friday and lasts into early next week but there are things we know about that storm and elements which will still need refinement:
Short Term (Today - Thursday):
We saw another mild and dry weather day across the region, thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure building overhead. Temperatures remained slightly below seasonal norms, with highs ranging from the upper 50s along the coast and interior valleys to upper 60s inland valleys. It was a very cold start across the area with frost and freeze conditions.
Skies were partly cloudy with some mid- and high-level clouds.
Wednesday:
The ridge will strengthen slightly, bringing mild offshore flow that will allow for gradual warming, especially inland. Coastal areas will warm more slowly, with temperatures ranging from the low 60s near the ocean to mid-70s inland. Winds will be calmer than Tuesday, but some light offshore gusts may persist in the morning.
With some high clouds the overnight lows will not be AS cold. There is some swell energy arriving related to the bomb cyclone to the north and a surf advisory for 10-13ft waves is in place starting at 3pm Wednesday into Thursday.
Thursday:
The warmest day of the week as the ridge peaks. Inland valleys may see highs in the lower 70s, while coastal areas will remain cooler in the mid-60s to low 70s. The beaches of the Central Coast will see a persistent sea breeze will moderate the warming.
Long Term (Friday - Monday):
Friday - Sunday:
The weather will take a noticeable turn toward cooler, cloudier, and wetter conditions as the ridge breaks down and a series of Pacific disturbances move into California. This system, which includes energetic jet stream activity and a modest plume of moisture, could bring the first significant rainfall of the season. While an epic blast is expected in NorCal the local impact still contains a wide range of possibilities.
- Rain Timing:
- Rain may begin Friday morning in San Luis Obispo County, spreading southward into Santa Barbara County by Friday night. The better changes of rain appear to begin in the afternoon or evening. But again this timing is being refined.
- By Saturday we will see continuing off and on through the weekend.
- Rainfall Amounts:
- North of Point Conception: San Luis Obispo County could see 0.75-1.5 inches, with higher amounts (up to 1.75 inches) in the northwest.
- South of Point Conception: Santa Barbara County is expected to receive 0.4-0.6 inches, though the Santa Ynez Mountains could see slightly higher totals.
- Rainfall rates will be light to moderate, as there is no strong mechanism for focusing heavy rain, but totals could vary widely depending on localized patterns.
- Temperatures:
Temperatures will drop significantly under the cloud cover and rain. Highs will be well below normal, generally in the upper 50s to mid-60s.
Snow Potential:
This is primarily a warm system, so snow levels will remain high through the weekend. However, colder air filtering in late Sunday and into Monday could lower snow levels, potentially dusting higher peaks above 6,000 feet. Only West Big Pine is tall enough for local snow.
Monday and Beyond:
Rain chances may persist into early next week as the system slowly exits the region. Temperatures will remain cool, but conditions should start to stabilize by midweek.
