Short Term (Today - Wednesday):
This morning started with a mix of freezing or near-freezing temperatures in sheltered valleys.
Highs today ranged from the upper 50s to mid-60s, a bit cooler than typical for this time of year.
We do have a few advisories in effect. There is a wind advisory in place for SW Santa Barbara County through the overnight into Tuesday morning for pass and canyon winds and higher elevation winds 20-30mph with gust potential to 50mph.
There is a high surf advisory for the west-facing beaches into Tuesday morning for 7-11ft. breakers with rip.
There is a freeze warning for the Santa Ynez, Santa Maria and Lompoc valleys. This means temps can get to freezing or cooler and stay there long enough to kill plants. People should also avoid prolonged exposure to this kind of cold.
Outside of that, much of this week locally will be quiet but the larger story is how the weather will get unsettled for the weekend and beyond. In northern California an atmospheric river looks to develop for more serious rainfall, it doesn’t appear at this time that the Central Coast will get a direct hit from that.
Tonight:
Offshore winds will develop overnight, with gusts shifting from northerly to northeasterly. While the winds won’t be especially strong, interior valleys and the Central Coast could experience another very cold overnight lows due to clear skies and light winds in sheltered areas.
Tuesday:
Offshore flow will strengthen slightly, and the lack of new cold air moving in will allow temperatures to rebound. Most areas will still see highs slightly below average, in the low to mid-60s along the coast and valleys. Clear skies and warming winds will set the stage for a brighter and more pleasant day.
Wednesday:
A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over Southern California, allowing for a more noticeable warm-up, especially in inland areas. Coastal and valley regions will also see a few degrees of warming, but mid-level clouds may bring mostly cloudy conditions to parts of San Luis Obispo and northern Santa Barbara counties. Highs will range from the mid-60s to low 70s inland.
Long Term (Thursday - Sunday):
Thursday:
A transition begins as offshore flow weakens and shifts to onshore. This will likely bring a return of morning marine layer clouds, particularly in coastal areas. Mid-level clouds drifting in from the north will create partly cloudy skies overall. Temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the 60s to low 70s.
Friday - Sunday:
The first significant rain event of the season is on the horizon. While exact timing and amounts remain uncertain, an upper-level low is expected to drop southward, bringing increased moisture and chances for widespread light to moderate rain.
- Timing: Rain chances will begin in northern San Luis Obispo County as early as Friday and spread southeastward through the weekend. While it’s nearly certain the region will see rain at some point over the three-day period, any given 12-hour window has a 30-40% chance of rain.
- Amounts: Current forecasts suggest totals of 0.75 to 1 inch north of Point Conception, with locally higher amounts (up to 2 inches) possible in northwest San Luis Obispo County. South of Point Conception, totals are expected to range from 0.25 to 0.5 inches.
- Snow Levels: This will be a warm system, so snow is not expected in the local mountains.
The system’s exact track and intensity are still uncertain, so rain amounts could change as the forecast evolves.
Early Next Week:
Rain chances may linger into Monday as the system slowly exits the region. Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather could persist early in the week before conditions stabilize midweek.
Stay tuned for updates as the weekend rain event approaches!
