Expect mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures across the region this week, with occasional coastal low clouds and fog in the early morning hours through Wednesday.
Gusty northwest to north winds will persist over the mountains and thru passes and canyons in Santa Barbara County until Wednesday.
In the short term, northerly pressure gradients will maintain gusty northwest to north winds over portions of the southwestern Santa Barbara County mountains and coast. Wind advisories are in place due to expected advisory-level wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph.
Breezy to gusty west to northwest winds will also affect much of the coast and adjacent valleys through this afternoon. Breezy to gusty sub-advisory level west to northwest winds can be expected each afternoon, particularly along the Central Coast.
A High Surf Advisory persists for San Luis Obispo County Beaches and Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches until 2 AM PDT Wednesday, with large breaking waves of 8 to 12 feet and dangerous rip currents expected.
A flat upper-level pattern will persist, keeping temperatures near normal to slightly above normal. Afternoon highs for the inland coast, valleys, and lower mountains should reach the 70s to low 80s. By Wednesday, a weak upper-level trough will move in, lingering through Thursday, though mostly clear skies are expected during this period.
As pressure gradients shift offshore to the east by Wednesday night, winds will turn more northeast into Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal to several degrees above normal through Thursday, with Thursday being the warmest day overall due to offshore flow. Highs should generally reach the 70s to lower 80s each day.
Looking ahead to the long term, computer models show general agreement through Friday. However, there's divergence over the weekend, with one model suggesting a significant upper-level trough and surface cold front late Saturday through Sunday, potentially bringing measurable rain. Another model indicates a weaker system with a smaller chance of rain.
Lingering uncertainties make it too early to predict rainfall amounts, but up to 0.10 inch is possible for many areas, with the potential for higher amounts in some regions. The afternoon GFS model actually went up quite a bit with rain potential to nearly an inch for some:
Temperature-wise, expect near-normal to slightly above-normal conditions on Friday, followed by a slight cooling trend through Sunday before a rebound on Monday. Further updates will provide more clarity as additional model runs come in over the next few days.
