Let's break down what the next few days have in store. We're looking at a noticeable cooling trend that started today, and it's going to stick around for much of the upcoming week. Some temperatures this afternoon were more than 20 degrees cooler than the same time yesterday.
Today and Saturday: A Shift in the Air
Earlier today, a low-pressure system southwest of us shifted its path, meaning the chance of rain for tonight and Saturday has diminished. I think Saturday is dry. Our modeling still shows a slight sprinkle opportunity tonight but it is a low chance, and if it happens at all the amounts would be very light. However, we did see an increase in high clouds as the afternoon progressed, and those cooler temperatures are definitely settling in. Think of it as a prelude to the more significant changes coming.
Sunday: Rain Returns, Possibly with Thunder
Sunday is when things get more interesting. A new storm system is on its way, and this one looks more likely to bring us some light rain. Expect most areas to see at least a little rainfall, with amounts generally staying under a quarter of an inch. What makes this system notable is the very cold air high up in the atmosphere. This cold air could create an unstable environment, meaning we might even see some isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially in San Luis Obispo County. These showers could be brief but intense.
Also, with that cold air, snow levels will drop rapidly. There's a chance of light accumulating snow Sunday night over the Grapevine.
Adding to Sunday's weather, expect gusty west to northwest winds as the colder air moves in. A tight surface pressure pattern will develop, making those winds more pronounced.
Next Week: Cool and Unsettled
A brief drier period is possible Monday into Tuesday, but another storm system is expected to arrive Wednesday into Thursday. This system has a higher chance of bringing more significant rain to the region, with some forecast models suggesting 1 to 1.5 inches of rain across the Central Coast. However, I'll mention here models all agree on activity but exact timing and intensities have been less than clear. This is a pert of the forecast I expect to evolve.
Also, a northerly wind event is shaping up for Monday night, especially through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County.
Coastal Hazards
A High Surf Advisory is in effect for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara County beaches from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PST Saturday. Large breaking waves of 8 to 12 feet, with some sets reaching 15 feet, are expected, along with dangerous rip currents. These conditions pose an increased risk for ocean drowning, and beachgoers are advised to remain out of the water or stay near occupied lifeguard towers.
Further down the road
Finally, and as I have been talking about on air, the period from March 9th to 10th thru the 17th could be very wet. Most, if not all, models see a series of strong storms potentially coming to California. Inches of rain are possible. Now, this is still on the more speculative end of physical weather models but there is good consensus this far out. Definitely stay tuned to upcoming forecasts for additional outlooks.
