The Central Coast just got past atmospheric system #1. That system dropped .50-3” of rain for most places but parts of the Santa Barbara County Mountains experienced 5+” of rain.
The concern moving forward is the potential of an even stronger atmospheric river storm late Saturday into Tuesday. The last atmospheric river storm was a 1 on a scale to 5. The upcoming storm is a 3 on that scale. This means it will be capable of transporting even more water vapor to the area.
Between now and Saturday afternoon we’ll be in an “imperfect break” between systems. This is more “off” than “on” activity but some showers can’t be ruled out. Temperatures Friday will generally be in the upper 50s and low 60s for highs. In fact, most of the extended forecast feature such highs.
While Saturday gets off to a good start by late in the day showers look to return. Activity increases into Sunday and Sunday looks to be a particularly wet and windy day. This activity lingers into Monday when it is expected to wane a little into Tuesday. But the upper low directing the atmospheric river moisture supply to the Central and Southcoast could linger keeping some level of activity continuing into Tuesday or even Wednesday. Another weaker low drops in Thursday so we’ll have to keep showers in the forecast for that day as well.
While the Central Coast could see 2-5” additional rainfall some areas exceeding that is possible.
The key concern though will the Santa Barbara County where 2-5” rainfall will be joined by higher potential for the mountains and foothills. Some areas could see 10” of rain. If that seems crazy, consider those locations already got 5” from this last system and the Santa Barbara area got 3”. More is expected than the last system.
I expect wave advisories or warnings, flood watches, wind warnings and advisories.
Please continue to stay informed about the forecast and use your county Office of Emergency Services information for the latest information about preparations and safety.
