The Central Coast got a little rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The north coast of SLO County saw a half inch of rain but much of the rest of the area only picked up light amounts to a tenth of an inch with the Southcoast of Santa Barbara County getting no rain.
This was the weakest in a line of systems expected for the Central Coast.
The second rain event is expected from Saturday PM into Sunday AM, this will be a bit more significant than the first rain, depositing up to .50” for some coastal areas with lower amounts inland and not much across Santa Barbara County.
It is the third opportunity that looks the wettest.
Sunday night or early Monday morning a much stronger low-pressure system looks to move into the Central Coast with higher rainfall rates (.50-1” per hour at times possible). This system is slower and could linger into early Wednesday.
Initial estimates are the system could drop 1-5” in a 72-hour period for the Central Coast and Santa Barbara County Southcoast with even more in the hills.
This is an atmospheric river system. It should be said there is some track uncertainty with this third system. Where the surface low tracks is critical, too far west and the most rain gets deposited over the ocean. That said, it is a significant enough system to issue guidance.
It is a warm system so snow levels will be quite high and the Central Coast is not likely to see snow or winter storm advisories:
SLO County is monitoring Lake Lopez and Whale Rock reservoirs for spilliage, though no major concerns about it at this point.
15-20 foot waves are possible Sunday and again on Tuesday with some coastal flooding due to high tides also possible.
No advisories are currently in effect but are likely for the high surf.
The Sunday storm also looks windy with gusts to 40mph. That’s strong but not as strong as the storm earlier this month.
Thunderstorm potential looks to be about 10-20% Sunday night through Tuesday.
With recent saturation, there are flooding concerns, and a flood advisory has already been issued for this event Sunday PM-Wednesday morning.
