We’ve been talking about this storm for quite some time. Models have shown it for more than a week and the details have remained remarkably consistent as forecasts go.
We still have a little time before conditions deteriorate Friday afternoon.
We experienced an expected quick splash-and-dash system last night into early this morning. Most places didn’t see much rain, however, some of the SLO County northcoast did get more than .25”. Many locations further south saw less and much of the area didn’t get measurable rainfall.
We are in between systems at the moment. Tonight looks quiet though more clouds will push into the region. Friday morning will be fine but conditions rapidly change in the afternoon.
Rain could begin as early as noon, but the heaviest potential arrives later in the afternoon or early evening and intense activity is possible Friday evening into Saturday morning. This initial band will include higher rainfall rates up to .75”/hour. Thunderstorms are also possible along with higher winds.
After that rainfall becomes more on and off with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible both Saturday and Sunday.
The thunderstorm risk has been increased a bit. Near the coast, there is a 30% chance of some thunderstorms. This means heavier rain, hail, strong winds, waterspouts, and even tornadoes are possible.
The total rainfall is expected to range from .25-2.5” with some mountains, higher elevations, and wind-facing slopes getting as much as 3-5”. The lowest totals will be far inland.
As a result of all this potential, several advisories have been issued to keep people informed and safe.
First, an areal flood watch is in place.
This means flooding of flood-prone areas is possible. This watch covers the entire area for Friday into the weekend.
A wind advisory begins Friday afternoon and lasts into Saturday morning for winds 15-30 gusting to 45mph. Gusts as high as 60mph are possible.
A winter storm warning has been posted for Friday PM-Sunday PM for the Santa Barbara County Mountains for 1-2 feet of snow above 6-thousand feet with diminishing potential down to 4500 ft.
A high surf advisory is already active and wave heights could max near 15 feet through Sunday morning at 9a.
Other advisories and warnings may be posted when the system arrives and begins to deliver the expected conditions. Please get a weather app like the KSBY Microclimate Weather App and turn notifications on to be alerted when new advisories or warnings go into place.
The most intense period will likely be Friday PM-Saturday with more scattered activity on Sunday.
The storm moves out Monday and temps warm into the 70s early next week.
