Tonight and Wednesday: Gusty north winds are winding down this afternoon as a weak cold front passes, making way for warmer conditions on Wednesday. A light offshore flow will set up as a high-pressure area moves eastward, creating moderate offshore gradients.
Our exiting system from Tuesday and activity in the northern Pacific is still producing some waves and an advisory for 10-14 foot breakers is in place into Wednesday morning:
The offshore winds won’t be particularly strong, so expect only modest temperature changes along the coast. Inland valleys could feel a more noticeable warm-up due to the dry air and light downsloping winds.
Thursday and Friday: A low-pressure system currently positioned over the Pacific Northwest will start drifting southward, bringing increased cloud cover and a return to onshore flow on Thursday and Friday. This system is relatively dry but has a good amount of cold air, which could make it more dynamic and impactful in our region.
Light rain is expected to start north of Point Conception, with rainfall amounts generally under a tenth of an inch. For lower elevations, some areas could see totals reach up to a quarter inch, especially where the cold air interacts with north-facing slopes in Santa Barbara County.
The main impacts from this system will likely be gusty west and northwest winds by Friday afternoon, particularly along the coast. These winds could reach advisory levels, especially near the coast and in wind-prone areas, so plan for potential travel impacts.
Long Term Forecast (Saturday - Tuesday):
Saturday: Conditions will vary slightly depending on how quickly the low-pressure system exits. Some models suggest lingering moisture into Saturday morning, particularly around the Grapevine, where cooling temperatures and leftover moisture could bring very light snow showers down to elevations around 4,000 feet. Any snow accumulation would likely be minor, an inch or less, and primarily in the higher passes.
Most areas, however, are expected to see drier conditions with gradually clearing skies by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will still be a bit cooler than normal, but an incoming high-pressure ridge should bring clear skies and mild conditions.
Sunday through Tuesday: A slow warming trend is expected to begin Sunday as the high-pressure ridge briefly strengthens over the area. This should bring temperatures up by about 5 degrees. By Monday, a weak trough will brush the region, but it is expected to stay mostly north and east. While most of the area will remain dry, there is a 10-20% chance of light showers in San Luis Obispo and northern Santa Barbara Counties, along with the Grapevine region.
After this system passes, attention shifts to a potential Santa Ana wind event for Tuesday into Wednesday for Southern California. Stay tuned as that part of the forecast develops.
