Hello, Central Coast! The cooling trend is expected to continue through Tuesday. The ridge of high pressure we saw last week has shifted east allowing our interior valleys to get some relief from the intense heat. However, another warming trend could return in the interior by the next weekend.
Weather headlines:
- There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon over the Los Angeles and Ventura County mountains, otherwise, skies will be clear except for morning low clouds across the coasts.
- The cooling trend will continue through Tuesday, but extreme heat is possible across the interior by next weekend.
Extended forecast:
Convective chances across the local area this afternoon and early evening remain highest in the Antelope Valley.
The satellite imagery during the past 24 hours revealed a rather significant influx of tropospheric moisture.
This is from the continued influx of monsoonal moisture around the western periphery of the expansive upper anticyclone centered over the southern Rockies — locally enhanced by a subtle, mesoscale impulse that moved through California this morning bringing thunderstorms to parts of the Los Angeles Basin and communities northward.
All this to say, there is copious deep-layer moisture across portions of Los Angeles County, where the focus for afternoon thunderstorms will be on Sunday. The moisture tapers off with northward extent across the Los Angeles and Oxnard County Warning Area, limiting the thunderstorm risk elsewhere else.
One exception will be the northern Ventura County mountains, where visible satellite imagery already indicates cumulus build-ups developing Sunday afternoon that will eventually yield thunderstorms.
The stable marine layer over the coastal areas and coastal valleys should largely prevent convective development there.
Regarding convective hazards, thermodynamic and kinematic parameters will conditionally support strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Aloft, midlevel winds have decreased given the lessened influence from the east Pacific upper low.
Our coastal valleys and interiors are seeing most of the wind gusts on Sunday. The interior valleys are seeing wind gusts near 30 mph on Sunday afternoon.
Benign weather is on tap for Monday. Southern California will be in between an upper high to the east and weak troughing to the northwest, resulting in dry southwesterly flow aloft. There will be weak onshore flow on Monday, and due to the offshore trends in areas like San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, it may be slightly warm on Monday.
The beach community will see highs in the 60s and 70s. The coastal valleys will see highs in the 60s and 70s. While the Santa Ynez Valley will be in the 80s. The interior will see highs in the 80s and 90s.
However, Santa Barbara County’s south coast may see the biggest warm-up as local northerly flow develops across the county. Night through morning low clouds will persist across all of the coasts and may move into the lower valleys.
On Tuesday the onshore flow will have a little stronger push to the east. It should be the coolest day with afternoon high temperatures approaching seasonal normals.
By Wednesday, models continue to show the upper high strengthening and pushing to the west. This kicks off a warming trend which will persist into next weekend, especially for interior areas.
Have a great day, Central Coast!
