The Central Coast has not experienced a lot of warm days this spring and the beginning of this week will hold true to form, but that all changes later this week when a big warm-up develops.
Currently, the upper air pattern has a trough digging into The West.
That has produced some breezy NW winds to 25mph, and this evening there is a wind advisory for the SW portion of Santa Barbara county thru 3am for NW winds 15-30 with gusts near 50 in the Gaviota Pass area of the county. Otherwise, most areas will see winds relax later this evening.
The trough will produce more clouds Tuesday into early Wednesday and cooler temps, most places in the 60s and lower 70s. Some beaches may only reach the upper 50s for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The trough will likely produce a few showers over SoCal and some higher elevations but locally the larger impact will just be the cooler air and clouds.
After this trough departs a large ridge of high pressure starts to build in. The first signs of warming start on Thursday but the trend continues into Saturday. Saturday inland highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with coastal valleys in the upper 70s and lower 80s with beaches in the 60s and 70s. Some marine layer rebound will bring near-coastal temps down a little into next week but inland temps are likely to stay pretty warm.
The large ridge hangs around for a while and the amplitude of the ridge might allow “return flow”. This southerly and southeasterly flow can bring warm unstable air in from the Desert SW for shower potential. The Climate Prediction Center has put that in our area for the 8-14 day. There are a number of days in the extended forecast where the more humid and unstable air could flare and produce showers and thunderstorms. We are on the edge of that potential. There is a greater chance east of us, and particularly at higher elevations but it can’t be ruled out here.
