An interesting pattern of two low pressure systems and an atmospheric river of sub-tropical moisture supply are converging in California over the next few days. Rain will begin in the early hours of Wednesday morning peaking between 4a to 10a before becoming more scattered but a second shot energy moves in Thursday for more rain with higher rain rate potential. A third impulse moves in Friday for showers.
Rain amounts have a large range due to the complexity of the pattern. Some coastal locations could see as little as .75″ but could range as high as 2″ and some area hills and mountains could see as much as 2-4″ into Friday.
S-SE winds of 20-30mph with gusts as high as 50-55mph will develop Wednesday and could last into Thursday afternoon, a wind advisory has been posted.
The wildcard in all of this is model inconsistency on rain potential. Today models are backing off high rain totals however if you look at all the models some predict high rain potential and rain rates while others show the system being negatively impacted from down-sloping SE winds. This is definitely a system that still needs dynamic monitoring due to the local sensitivities to flash flooding in recent burn areas. As of now no evacuations watches or warnings have been issued. There is also no flash flood watch however other nearby NWS offices have issued broad flash flood watches for the event due to the atmospheric river component.
Modeling has also shown the potential for thunderstorms Thursday which could produce locally intense rain.
We could see some early showers Friday but the day should become partly cloudy. Saturday also looks partly cloudy and cool before another front brings wind and rain potential Sunday. Monday and Tuesday of next week look dry.
With a forecast which will change as the system draws closer I highly recommend the KSBY.com website, KSBY weather app and my social media (@TVDave on Twitter and TVDaveHovde on Facebook for higher volume posts).
