An active pattern is forming in the Pacific. There is a storm dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and another storm NW of Hawaii. The two look to work together to bring the potential for heavy rain back to the Central Coast. It is the low pressure center near Hawaii now that will do much of the work. That storm sits just north of the atmospheric river moisture supply. If it is able to incorporate that supply, 1-3″ of rain with rain rates .2-.4″/hr are possible. In south facing hills, higher rain totals could result as could rain rates exceeding .50-.60″/hour. That could cause concern for recent burn areas. This potential is being closely monitored.
Additionally, strong south or southeast winds are expected to develop Wednesday of 25-35mph with potential gusts past 50mph. Wind advisories or warnings are also likely Wednesday.
Thursday morning could see continued rain, though there is less model agreement of this second part of the system. Showers could also continue into Friday but not at the pace of Wednesday and Thursday, but again, this portion of the forecast is likely in need of refinement. There are models calling for a dry weekend. Stay tuned for more information about that.
Snow levels should actually go up quite a bit since these storms are sub-tropically fueled. For the Sierra, snow levels could put the bulk of snow above 7000ft.
