Rain becomes more scattered this evening but Tuesday morning more rain returns, with locally heavy potential and thunderstorms are also possible.
Thinking has changed a bit with the Tuesday storm, this could be stronger than initial outlooks on the storm. Current modeling is showing rainfall early in the day peaking between 6a-12p in SLO county with a 6a-3p peak across SB county. Again SB county has the highest potential with the storm. South winds also return, not quite as strong as today but strong enough to enhance rainfall on south facing slopes. A flash flood watch has been issued for all recent burn scar areas of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.
1-3” of rain for the SB southcoast with some south faces potentially 4″, .50-.1.50” in SLO county with a few spots exceeding that for Tuesday (this is just Tuesday)
The rain rates are the key here.
.50-1″ rain rates are possible with moderate to heavy rain and also the chance for thunderstorms.
Then we enter the end of this string of storms Wednesday afternoon thru Thursday.
Another 2-4” of rain is possible. More flash flood potential is in play but due to saturated land; broader flood issues could be an issue due to the number of days with rain.