Offshore winds are the story all over California today. Both in northern and southern California significant fires developed under challenging conditions. This air is about as dry as it can be along with high winds that are only expected to increase tonight, especially over Southern CA. 40-50mph winds with gust potential in isolated spots to 70 is possible. High wind watches, warnings and Red Flag Warnings are all in place through southern CA.
For the Central Coast the winds are not intense and that is why we are not included in the fire and wind related watches and warnings, however the dry air and clear skies will allow temps to drop like a rock tonight in the interior valleys where lows in the low 30s or even upper 20s are possible.
Conditions don’t look to change much into next week so lows could see a 7 day run near or cooler than freezing in the inland valleys of SLO county.
The high temps will still be rather mild in the mid 70s inland and in the upper 70s and lower 80s in the coastal valleys and beaches in the low to mid 70s. The offshore winds will also drive these warm late morning and early afternoon highs before weakly turning onshore in the afternoons. Again this forecast stays in place with only minor variation for about 7 days.
The northern CA fire could bring smoke into the skies locally as well.
Watch the #CampFire plume moving SW due to the intense NE winds and the amount of smoke.
Posted by Dave Hovde-KSBY on Thursday, November 8, 2018
In terms of rain there is finally some hope. The American GFS model likes a storm around Thanksgiving, I mentioned this on social media a few days ago but cautions that we’d need more model evidence to increase the optimism: that appears to be happening. 4 runs of the GFS show some alignment and a ensemble model of 21 different computer models also brings rain to us around the same time. Intensity is always the question.
Right now the GFS likes something rather strong while ensembles are not quite as robust. Regardless something to watch. We need rain but rain during heavy travel periods is always tricky. Stay tuned.