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Consumer confidence tumbles amid concerns over inflation, labor market

The index of consumer sentiment released by The Conference Board shows the "largest monthly decline since August 2021."
People buy groceries at a Walmart Superstore
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Consumer confidence is on a downward slide. Economic uncertainty and rising costs are weighing on consumers like Kyle Cohen.

The retiree and Florida resident, who relies on Social Security and SNAP benefits, said she is adapting to rising prices by purchasing less meat at the grocery store.

"You have to rethink everything. Am I going to buy this?" Cohen said. "Am I going to substitute? What am I going to buy?"

New evidence of falling consumer confidence was released Tuesday by the nonpartisan, not-for-profit Conference Board. It reported its Consumer Confidence Index declined 7 points to 98.3 in February.

That is "the largest monthly decline since August 2021," according to a statement from Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at The Conference Board.

The Conference Board points to concerns over tariffs and inflation, pessimism about future employment opportunities, and less optimism about future income.

"The good news is, for what it's worth, we're coming off of a strong base," said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst with Bankrate. "The most recent reading for the nation's unemployment rate at 4%, that's regarded essentially close to full employment or as low as it can go."

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The U.S. economy has shown steady growth in terms of the nation's gross domestic product and labor market. But that does little to settle consumers' fears and affordability challenges.

"Really, the problem is that we have this convergence of uncertainty," Hamrick said, "What will the future bring?"

Respondents in The Conference Board's survey also expressed concern over trade and the expected impact of tariffs.

But it's inflation that remains a sticking point.

"Our grocery bill used to be $500 a month and now it's definitely $1,300 or more," said parent and Utah resident Paige Conover.

The mother of three said everything on her grocery receipt is more expensive, but especially eggs.

"I'm like 'enjoy the eggs, kids,' because these are the last ones for a while," she said.

Restaurant chain Denny's is reportedly the latest to add an egg surcharge to meals, a sour addition to the Grand Slam breakfast.

Hamrick reminds us that rising egg prices are associated with the avian flu and not necessarily the economy. Still, they've become the "proverbial poster child" for inflation.

"The price of eggs is not correlated to the rest of the grocery store experience, but most recently they were up 15% in a month and up more than 50% in a year, and that's not nothing," he said.

As to future consumer spending, The Conference Board reports a shift in spending plans that includes planned purchases of homes, health care, and live entertainment. They are at the expense of cars, electronics, and travel, which are trending downward.

In response to the Consumer Confidence Index, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration is committed to making sure consumers see relief.

"I can assure the American people that the president is very much focused on bringing down the cost-of-living crisis in this country that was created by the previous administration," she said during a White House briefing Tuesday.

The Consumer Confidence Index follows two previous reports of consumer confidence on the decline. Gallup's Economic Confidence Index, released in February, showed that Americans' overall confidence in the economy remains in negative territory.

A measure of consumer sentiment, from the University of Michigan, found consumer sentiment slid nearly 10% from January as inflation worries escalated.