California’s Central Coast | Everywhere

Dave Hovde

More showers into the weekend and snow levels drop low again

The Central Coast still sits in a trough over the West and a number of small disturbances still look to rotate thru the area into later Sunday. That will keep on and off showers in play. The total amount of additional rain looks to stay under .50” but the airmass will get cold. That means snow levels will drop from about 5000ft down to 1500 or perhaps lower Sunday.

Snow levels that low could put snow in the hills of both SLO and SB counties and some valley snow showers are not out of the question.

The rains turn more showery and winds diminish

We are not done with rain yet but the heaviest activity should be done as we enter a period where on and off scattered showers are in the forecast thru Sunday.

The Central and Southcoast got a good dose of rain and even some thunderstorms last night thru this afternoon when a trough moved over the area. Combined with the atmospheric river there were some locally intense downpours. That activity is starting to wane and that trend to less intense activity will continue

Showery rain continues into Friday

On and off light to moderate rain with windy conditions will continue into Thursday. There is another impulse early Thursday which should increase rain coverage and rain rates again. Those rates could near .50”/hr at times but right now the thinking is that local burn scars are not at significant risk of debris flow. There are no local flash flood watches or evacuation orders relating to the current wet weather forecast.

Winds will still be a concern with SE winds of 20-30mph with gusts to 45-55mph.

Wednesday into Thursday storm will produce rain and a lot of wind

An interesting pattern of two low pressure systems and an atmospheric river of sub-tropical moisture supply are converging in California over the next few days. Rain will begin in the early hours of Wednesday morning peaking between 4a to 10a before becoming more scattered into Thursday.

Rain amounts have a large range due to the complexity of the pattern. Some coastal locations could see as little as .40″ but could range as high as 2″ and some area hills and mountains could see as much as 2-4″

Rain returns with on and off showers over the weekend

Two cold but generally weak low pressure systems will roll thru thru the Central Coast between now and Monday. The system Friday night into Saturday is cold and also unstable so showers could include isolated thunderstorms and hail but the rain amount should be limited due to lack of low level moisture. I think most locations will see light to .75″ of rain, higher elevations could see more.

Rain returns Friday afternoon with potential for a major storm next week

We have been stuck in a cool and unsettled pattern. That pattern delivers another cold front Friday afternoon into Saturday morning for rain up to .75″ and snow levels down to 3500ft.

There looks to be a small break Saturday afternoon into evening with another front late Saturday night into Sunday. That system looks to drop less rain, likely less than .50″ however snow levels could drop as low as 2000ft.

Not done with rain yet and snow levels will get very low

A cold centered low will move over California between now and late Tuesday bringing more rain showers and low snow levels. Snow levels should drop from the current 4500ft to around 2000ft by late Tuesday PM. A winter weather advisory has been posted for the SLO and SB county higher terrain. 3-6″ of snow with isolated amounts to 8″ could happen at higher elevations.

Wind gusts peaked past 70mph Saturday morning

Peak winds with the storm system are done however it is worth looking back and considering the peaks which did exceed 70mph in a number of locations across both SLO and SB counties. This report indicates the peak gust, time it took place and elevation in feet of the observation.

Rainfall totals from the Friday night – Saturday storm

The Central Coast and Santa Barbara county Southcoast got a very good dose of rain from Friday PM into Saturday early afternoon.  Here is a look at how much rain broken down by area.  Please post your rain reports as well:

Heaviest rain is gone, but its not over yet as rain continues into Tuesday

While the heaviest rain is gone there is still plenty of opportunity to pick up rain between now and Tuesday. Dry conditions will develop again mid-week.

Winds which saw peaks up to 70mph will weaken somewhat. Southwest winds will shift more westerly but winds of 15-30mph are likely into Sunday morning before dropping under 15mph.
The key to the forecast is the upper low is still in the process of moving over California. As it does so it will continue to drive the development of more showers. The good news is that the rain rates will be dramatically lower than the activity that caused the widespread flooding issues last night and this morning.

Winds increasing and rain picking up pace as storm arrives

A very strong storm is starting to bring expected rain and wind.  The bulk of the storm is still off the coast of SLO and Santa Barbara county area and it will bring dangerous seas, heavy rain and potentially damaging winds to the area tonight through Saturday. While rain showers have already started for parts of the area the main impact of the system will be 10pm Friday night into late Saturday morning with the heavy rain and strong winds.

Saturday storm system looks to pack a powerful rain and wind punch

A very strong storm is on the doorstep for the SLO and Santa Barbara county area and it will bring dangerous seas, heavy rain and potentially damaging winds to the area tonight through Saturday. While rain showers have already started for parts of the area the main impact of the system will be 10pm Friday night into late Saturday morning with the heavy rain and strong winds. However it is important to understand that some lingering showers continue into the afternoon. A second round with this storm looks to develop later Saturday evening continuing periods of lighter to moderate rain into Sunday.

Another stronger and very windy storm on the way late Friday into Saturday

Tonight and much of Friday (all the daylight hours) look quiet.  But the situation changes quickly Friday night.  Showers will develop around sunset but heavier rain holds off until after midnight.  For SLO county the heaviest rain is done by mid-morning.  For Santa Barbara/Ventura county the heavy rain potential is from 3a-1p Saturday. 

1-3″ rain for the coast, 2-4+” mountains.  Rain rates will be .5-1″/hour at times which means debris flow is a possible concern.  The system doesn’t look to pack thunderstorms however the connection to the atmospheric river will enhance rainfall…and so will very strong winds.

Temps could hit 80 for some Saturday and signs of rain in February

I think we could see some scattered 80 degree highs Saturday.  Inland valleys will see more 30s for lows tonight with 40s at the coast but mid to upper 70s for most coastal highs with even the interior valleys pushing into the upper 60s and low 70s Saturday. Sunday looks slightly cooler but still plenty of sun and warmer than average highs. Coastal and inland temps hover near 70 all thru next week. A slight chance of a shower creeps in Thursday but a likelihood on Friday.

Afternoon temps stay warm thru the weekend

The Central Coast already had some temperatures in the 70s today with even warmer temps expected into the weekend. The dry and clear conditions with cool nights and mild afternoon are driven by high pressure. The jet stream ridge over California looks to linger thru the end of the month.

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